Graphic Packaging (GPK)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-05
$11.54-1.79%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GPK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GPK — earnings in line
Dated 2026-11-03
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On November 3, 2026, Graphic Packaging Holding Company issued a press release reporting its third quarter 2026 results. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. As provided in General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this
Why it matters: The suit names GPK and current and former leaders. A ruling or settlement could bring added costs or new facts about the claims.
Worry ifA court allows key claims to proceed, or GPK reports a settlement or legal cost tied to the suit.
Less concerning ifThe court dismisses the claims, or GPK reports no material change and no settlement.
Why it matters: GPK cut its 2026 capital plan from $922 million in 2025. Spending above the new cap would weaken its cost and cash flow plans.
Worry ifReported spending on capital for 2026 tops $450 million.
Less concerning ifReported 2026 capital spending is $450 million or less.
Why it matters: GPK cut its cash flow range from $700–$800 million to $600–$700 million. Meeting the new range would show cash generation is holding up.
Watch forReported 2026 adjusted cash flow is at least $600 million and no more than $700 million.
Also watch forReported 2026 adjusted cash flow is below $600 million.
Why it matters: Margins rose from Q1 to Q2, but Q2 margin was still 11.3%, down from 15.3% a year earlier. Another gain would show progress against inflation.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA margin tops 11.3%.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA margin is 11.3% or lower.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$180 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $418 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,063 loss on $10,000 · 50.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.