Graphic Packaging (GPK)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$10.43-2.52%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GPK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -39.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 41.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GPK — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-09-03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On September 3, 2026, Graphic Packaging International, LLC (“Graphic Packaging” or the “Company”), the primary operating subsidiary of Graphic Packaging Holding Company, entered into a loan agreement with the Mission Economic Development Corporation (“MEDC”) for the proceeds of the MEDC’s offering of $115.2 million aggregate principal amount of tax-exempt “green” bonds due 2064 w…
Why it matters: Growth in the materials sector may help Graphic Packaging do better.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth turns positive after being negative.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains negative.
Why it matters: The green bond plan is part of how money is spent. Progress shows a focus on sustainability and financial health.
Watch forThey announced they issued green bonds worth over $100 million.
Also watch forNo updates or issuance of green bonds by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The Waco facility is key for future production. Delays may hurt financial results.
Supportive ifThe Waco facility is done early and costs less than planned.
Worry ifThere are delays or budget issues with the Waco project.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good cash flow management. It makes investors feel secure about returns.
Supportive ifThe dividend per share remains at $0.11 in the next quarter.
Worry ifThe company cuts or suspends the dividend payment.
Why it matters: Management aims to cut costs by $60 million. Success here could improve margins and cash flow.
Supportive ifCost reductions of at least $15 million reported in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCost reductions fail to meet $15 million target in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This will show if the company can meet its cash flow goals. It is key for financial health.
Worry ifQ2 2026 Adjusted Cash Flow reported below $700 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 Adjusted Cash Flow reported above $800 million.
Why it matters: The result can change how management acts and how people see the company.
Watch forA good court ruling for Graphic Packaging in the lawsuit.
Also watch forA bad court decision can lead to fines or changes in management.
Why it matters: Keeping dividends shows financial health. It shows management wants to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifLook for news about continued or higher dividend payments.
Worry ifLook for news about dividend cuts or suspensions.
Why it matters: Higher savings mean better cost management. This helps offset inflation effects.
Supportive ifManagement reports cost savings over $85 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCost savings reported below $85 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Finishing the Waco project is important. It will help with future production and growth.
Supportive ifThe Waco project will be completed by Q3 2026.
Worry ifThere are new delays in finishing the Waco project.
Why it matters: Using green bonds can help with capital allocation. This can support future investments.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of successful projects funded by green bonds.
Worry ifNo updates or negative news on green bond projects.
Why it matters: Lowering inventory helps cash flow. It also makes the business run better.
Supportive ifCompany reports inventory dropped by at least $40 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifInventory levels remain flat or increase in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Selling off parts of the business would help focus and improve finances.
Supportive ifThey announced the sale of non-core assets in Croatia.
Worry ifNo progress or delays in the divestiture process.
Why it matters: If operating income goes up, it shows better cost management. This is important for making money.
Supportive ifOperating income in Q2 shows a significant increase from $19 million in Q1.
Worry ifOperating income in Q2 remains at or below $19 million.
Why it matters: Weak sales growth would indicate ongoing challenges in the market.
Worry ifQ2 2026 net sales growth is less than 2%.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 net sales growth exceeds 2%.
Why it matters: The use of green bonds could enhance financial flexibility and support growth initiatives. This is new for the company.
Supportive ifGraphic Packaging uses the $141.4 million from green bonds well in key projects.
Worry ifThe company has trouble using the green bond money well or shows bad financial results.
Why it matters: Growth in net sales would indicate a recovery in demand and pricing power.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales increase year over year, exceeding $2,188 million.
Worry ifQ3 net sales decline year over year, falling below $2,188 million.
Why it matters: Changes in spending may show shifts in management's growth plans and financial health.
Watch forManagement says it will spend less than $450 million in 2026.
Also watch forManagement plans to spend more than $450 million. This may show money problems.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows good cost control and efficient operations.
Supportive ifManagement says they reached the $60 million cost cut goal in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCost reductions fall short of the $60 million target.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Graphic Packaging can improve its operating income. This is key for future growth.
Watch forEarnings report shows operating income growth year over year.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows that operating income went down compared to last year.
Why it matters: The company cut inventory by $48 million in Q1 2026. More cuts may show better efficiency.
Supportive ifInventory drops by another $30 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifInventory increases or remains flat in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The sector's performance affects Graphic Packaging. Good trends could help growth, while bad trends could hurt results.
Watch forSector revenue growth turns positive after being negative for three years.
Also watch forSector revenue growth is still negative for another quarter.
Why it matters: An improvement shows that cost actions are working. This is true even with inflation.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA margin improves from 11.3% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA margin drops or stays below 11.3%.
Why it matters: These savings can help reduce the impact of inflation and improve profits this year.
Supportive ifConfirmation that the $85 million in savings is realized by the end of 2026.
Worry ifIf savings are less than $85 million, it shows poor cost management.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$191 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $410 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,762 loss on $10,000 · 57.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.