Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Graphic Packaging (GPK)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$11.54-1.79%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.09 → 0.97 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GPK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital spending about $450 million in 2026 | It plans to spend about $450 million on capital in 2026. | Intact | Capital spending deviates significantly from $450 million in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $83M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$450 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 202683,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cost-efficiency and cash-flow improvement story in a sector with a current tailwind, rather than a clearly durable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, and the recent signal improved from mixed to mildly favorable, but management execution remains volatile and business risk is elevated.
GPK screens cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, meaning expectations appear more cautious than the model’s baseline. The valuation evidence has low confidence, and the priced-in assessment says weak execution is recognized without a broader stack of risks being concentrated in expectations.
Near term, management’s cost-savings target has risen to $85 million, while planned 2026 capital spending remains far below 2025; these actions support cost discipline. Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin expanded sequentially, but the adjusted cash-flow outlook was lowered, and inflationary pressures remain significant. A recent earnings beat and neutral overall financial performance are positives, though the evidence also notes misses across recent quarters and flags a possible guidance cut as a risk.
The multi-year thesis depends on cost savings and operational efficiency offsetting inflation while margins and cash generation improve. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers would support the tailwind, while peer misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, GPK’s case rests on converting cost discipline into stronger cash generation, with a favorable sector backdrop offset by uneven execution and elevated risk. The thesis remains intact, but confidence is limited. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Reaffirmed 2026 capital spending guidance of approximately $450 million, down from $922 million in 2025.” “Non-GAAP Financial Measures & Reconciliations This presentation includes certain historic financial measures that exclude or adjust for charges or income associated with business combinations, facility shutdowns, extended paperboard manufacturing facility outages, sales of assets and other special charges or income (“Non-GAAP Financial Measures”).”
Improve operating income from $19 million in Q1 2026 | Graphic Packaging aims to cut costs and improve efficiency. | Intact | Operating income stays at or below $19 million next year | Operating income: $101M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income improves beyond $19 million in coming quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 3, 2026101,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Driving Cost Discipline and Operational Efficiency • Delivering on cost reduction commitment of $60 million.” “Non-GAAP Financial Measures & Reconciliations This presentation includes certain historic financial measures that exclude or adjust for charges or income associated with business combinations, facility shutdowns, extended paperboard manufacturing facility outages, sales of assets and other special charges or income (“Non-GAAP Financial Measures”).” Operating income was $101.000 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Free cash flow between $700 million and $800 million in 2026 | The company expects free cash flow between $700 million and $800 million in 2026. | Broken | Free cash flow falls below $700 million in FY26 | Free cash flow: $75M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $700 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 202675,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Advanced working capital efficiency initiatives including reducing inventory, supporting delivery of the 2026 Adjusted Cash Flow target range of $700 million to $800 million.” “Non-GAAP Financial Measures & Reconciliations This presentation includes certain historic financial measures that exclude or adjust for charges or income associated with business combinations, facility shutdowns, extended paperboard manufacturing facility outages, sales of assets and other special charges or income (“Non-GAAP Financial Measures”).” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Annual revenue near $8.5 billion in 2026 | A primary condition in Graphic Packaging's published investment case. The stated target is >= $8.4 billion. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $8.4 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $2.192B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $8.4 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 20262,192,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.17 → $0.97 · observed estimates
$8.75B → $8.79B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.17 | $8,750,723,075 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.17 | $8,750,723,075 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.16 | $8,739,807,810 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.16 | $8,739,807,810 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.17 | $8,750,723,075 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.16 | $8,739,807,810 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.16 | $8,739,807,810 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.16 | $8,739,807,810 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.17 | $8,750,723,075 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.16 | $8,739,807,810 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.16 | $8,739,807,810 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.16 | $8,739,807,810 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.16 | $8,739,807,810 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.17 | $8,750,723,075 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.16 | $8,790,849,793 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.15 | $8,788,437,630 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.15 | $8,788,437,630 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.15 | $8,788,437,630 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.16 | $8,790,849,793 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.16 | $8,790,849,793 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.16 | $8,790,849,793 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.16 | $8,790,849,793 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.16 | $8,790,849,793 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.16 | $8,790,849,793 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.16 | $8,790,849,793 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.16 | $8,790,849,793 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.12 | $8,799,367,683 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.12 | $8,799,367,683 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.12 | $8,799,367,683 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.12 | $8,799,367,683 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.12 | $8,799,367,683 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.12 | $8,799,367,683 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.12 | $8,799,367,683 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.12 | $8,799,367,683 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.12 | $8,799,367,683 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.12 | $8,799,367,683 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.12 | $8,799,367,683 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.12 | $8,799,367,683 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.12 | $8,799,367,683 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.12 | $8,799,367,683 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.11 | $8,799,367,683 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.11 | $8,799,367,683 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.11 | $8,799,367,683 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.11 | $8,799,367,683 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.11 | $8,799,367,683 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.11 | $8,799,367,683 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.11 | $8,799,367,683 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.11 | $8,799,367,683 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.11 | $8,799,367,683 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.11 | $8,799,367,683 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.11 | $8,799,367,683 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.11 | $8,799,367,683 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.11 | $8,799,367,687 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.11 | $8,799,367,687 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.11 | $8,799,367,687 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.11 | $8,799,367,687 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.11 | $8,799,367,687 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.11 | $8,799,367,687 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.11 | $8,799,367,687 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.11 | $8,799,367,687 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.11 | $8,799,004,051 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.11 | $8,799,004,051 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.11 | $8,799,004,051 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.11 | $8,799,004,051 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.11 | $8,799,004,051 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.11 | $8,799,004,051 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.10 | $8,802,967,687 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.10 | $8,802,967,687 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.09 | $8,802,967,687 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.09 | $8,802,967,687 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.09 | $8,802,967,687 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.09 | $8,802,967,687 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.09 | $8,802,967,687 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.05 | $8,781,627,542 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.05 | $8,781,627,542 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.05 | $8,781,627,542 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.05 | $8,781,627,542 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.05 | $8,781,627,542 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.05 | $8,781,627,542 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.05 | $8,781,627,542 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.03 | $8,781,663,836 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.01 | $8,781,862,919 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.01 | $8,781,862,919 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.01 | $8,781,862,919 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.01 | $8,781,862,919 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.00 | $8,785,044,737 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.00 | $8,785,044,737 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.00 | $8,787,881,101 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.00 | $8,786,245,190 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.98 | $8,801,269,709 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.98 | $8,801,269,709 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.98 | $8,801,269,709 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.98 | $8,801,269,709 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.98 | $8,801,269,709 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.98 | $8,801,269,709 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.98 | $8,801,269,709 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.98 | $8,801,269,709 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.98 | $8,801,269,709 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.98 | $8,801,269,709 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.98 | $8,801,269,709 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.98 | $8,801,269,709 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.98 | $8,801,269,709 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.97 | $8,788,849,709 | 6 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.