Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.04-2.80%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GPMT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -67.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -64.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GPMT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 5, 2026, Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release and 2026 Second Quarter Earnings Call Supplemental are attached hereto as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 attached hereto, is furnished pursuant to
Why it matters: The buyback shows that the company believes in its value and plans.
Supportive ifManagement will start share buybacks in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo shares are repurchased by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Doing the buyback program shows a strong commitment to how money is used. It may boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement announces share buybacks of at least $5 million.
Worry ifNo buybacks are executed by the next earnings report on August 4, 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift in the real estate sector.
Supportive ifReal estate sector revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in the CECL reserve signals better loan performance and credit quality. This can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifCECL reserve percentage falls below 7.9% as reported in the next earnings call.
Worry ifCECL reserve percentage remains at or above 9.4%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$164 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $525 loss on $10,000 · 5.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,442 loss on $10,000 · 34.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A lower CECL reserve shows better credit quality. It means less risk of losses.
Supportive ifCECL reserve drops below 7.5%. This shows good risk management.
Worry ifCECL reserve rises above 9%. This indicates worse credit quality.
Why it matters: Confirming the dividend shows financial health. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a common stock dividend of $0.05 per share for Q3.
Worry ifNo news on the dividend or a cut in the dividend amount.
Why it matters: Higher loan repayments show progress in fixing old loans. They also help cash flow.
Supportive ifLoan repayments in Q3 are over $150 million. This shows strong efforts to resolve issues.
Worry ifLoan repayments in Q3 are below $100 million. This suggests ongoing problems.
Why it matters: Lowering CECL reserves shows that assets are in better shape. This can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifCECL reserves decrease below 7.9% of total loan commitments.
Worry ifCECL reserves increase or remain above 9.4% of total loan commitments.
Why it matters: Refinancing more CLOs can lower funding costs. This can help improve profit margins.
Supportive ifNews about refinancing more legacy CLOs at a lower cost.
Worry ifNo further refinancing announcements or an increase in the cost of funds.