Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (GPMT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
$3.73-19.09%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GPMT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -87.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -65.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 25 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GPMT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 4, 2026, Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release and 2026 Third Quarter Earnings Call Supplemental are attached hereto as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 attached hereto, is furnished pursua…
Why it matters: The loan book shrank by $121.8 million in Q2 as repayments and resolutions outweighed fundings. Continued shrinkage could limit future interest income.
Watch forQ3 fundings exceed loan repayments and resolutions. Total loan commitments rise above $1.5 billion.
Also watch forIn Q3, repayments and resolutions again exceed fundings. Total loan commitments fall below $1.5 billion.
Why it matters: GPMT has paid a $0.05 common dividend each quarter since 2025-Q2. A cut would break that pattern while earnings are negative.
Worry ifThe next dividend announcement sets the common dividend below $0.05 per share or skips it.
Less concerning ifThe next dividend announcement keeps the common dividend at $0.05 per share.
Why it matters: The reserve rose to 11.4% of loan commitments in Q2, from 7.9% after Q1. A further rise would point to more credit strain.
Worry ifQ3 results show CECL reserves above 11.4% of loan commitments, or another large loan loss.
Less concerning ifQ3 results show CECL reserves below 11.4%, with no large new loan loss.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$230 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $613 loss on $10,000 · 6.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,543 loss on $10,000 · 85.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.