Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Green Plains, Inc. (GPRE)
NASDAQMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.66-2.91%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.73 → 1.77 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GPRE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA of $200-$225 million for 2026 | Green Plains raised EBITDA guidance to $200-$225 million for 2026. | Intact | EBITDA falls below $200 million in FY26 | Ebitda: $91.323M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $200 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202691,323,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk operating turnaround in a Materials sector with a favorable backdrop, rather than an established profitable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent performance strong, but earnings quality remains loss-making and management execution is mixed overall.
The valuation model describes GPRE as expensive, despite a cheap-versus-peers signal, so the overall picture is mixed. Its expectations gap is negative, which suggests expectations are not especially demanding, while the valuation score has risen recently; the evidence does not show a clear, broad market assumption beyond that.
Near-term results have improved materially: operating income turned positive in 2026-Q2 after a loss a year earlier, and the company reported value from production tax credits. Revenue was still below the year-ago quarter, and the evidence does not establish that debt has already fallen. Recent earnings beats support execution, but erratic surprises and the high-miss-rate industry leave near-term risk elevated.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on sustaining operating improvement and converting announced tax-credit transfers into cash that supports debt reduction. A guidance cut after the recent raise would damage credibility; continued strength at Materials sector bellwethers would support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it. The recently announced acquisition is a further swing factor, but the supplied evidence does not describe its expected impact.
For the next 1 to 3 years, GPRE has a credible but still unproven turnaround case: operating performance has improved, while profitability, debt progress, and execution remain important uncertainties. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating income improved to $44.8 million in 2026-Q1. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below zero in 2026-Q1 |
Operating income: $67.874M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $44.8 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 202667,874,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Net income attributable to Green Plains increased $139.4 million and adjusted EBITDA increased $76.9 million for the three months ended June 30, 2026 compared with the same period in 2025 primarily due to recognition of $58.7 million of 45Z production tax credits net of discounts and other costs, higher margins in our ethanol production and agribusiness and energy services segments and lower selling, general and administrative expenses as a result of restructuring costs of $2.5 million incurred during the three months ended June 30, 2025.” “Core operating profitability strengthened with adjusted EBITDA of $93.3 million compared to $16.4 million for the same period in the prior year.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Effective use of production tax credits | The company benefits from production tax credits. | Intact | Loss of production tax credits or major reduction | Tax Credit Purchase Agreement executed Oct 2026 GPRE entered a Tax Credit Purchase Agreement for Section 45Z credits from ethanol production starting Jan 1, 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The agreement provides for the transfer of a minimum of $250 million of 45Z credits expected to be generated in 2026, and the buyers will purchase additional credits up to a total of $325 million, with an option to purchase an additional $30 million, subject to their generation and availability.” “(4) Ethanol production includes $58.7 million and $113.9 million of 45Z production tax credits recorded net of discounts, other costs and selling, general and administrative expenses for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026, respectively.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.57 → $1.77 · observed estimates
$2.28B → $1.99B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.57 | $2,281,177,005 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.57 | $2,281,177,005 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.51 | $2,281,037,005 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.43 | $2,281,026,350 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.51 | $2,281,037,005 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.51 | $2,281,037,005 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.51 | $2,281,037,005 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.43 | $2,281,026,350 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.51 | $2,281,037,005 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.43 | $2,281,026,350 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.43 | $2,281,026,350 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.43 | $2,281,026,350 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.43 | $2,281,026,350 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.51 | $2,281,037,005 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.51 | $2,281,037,005 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.43 | $2,281,026,350 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.43 | $2,281,026,350 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.51 | $2,281,037,005 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.51 | $2,281,037,005 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.51 | $2,281,037,005 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.51 | $2,281,037,005 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.51 | $2,281,037,005 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.51 | $2,281,037,005 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.51 | $2,281,037,005 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.51 | $2,281,037,005 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.51 | $2,281,037,005 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.74 | $2,280,486,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.74 | $2,280,486,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.74 | $2,280,486,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.74 | $2,280,486,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.74 | $2,280,486,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.74 | $2,280,486,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.74 | $2,280,486,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.74 | $2,280,486,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.74 | $2,280,486,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.74 | $2,280,486,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.74 | $2,280,486,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.74 | $2,280,486,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.74 | $2,280,486,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.74 | $2,280,486,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.74 | $2,280,486,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.74 | $2,280,486,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.74 | $2,280,486,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.74 | $2,280,486,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.74 | $2,280,486,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.74 | $2,280,486,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.74 | $2,280,486,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.74 | $2,016,266,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.74 | $2,016,266,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.74 | $2,016,266,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.74 | $2,016,266,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.74 | $2,016,266,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.74 | $2,016,266,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.74 | $2,016,266,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.74 | $2,016,266,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.74 | $2,016,266,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.74 | $2,016,266,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.74 | $2,016,266,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.74 | $2,016,266,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.74 | $2,016,266,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.74 | $2,016,266,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.74 | $2,016,266,345 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.73 | $1,958,088,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.73 | $1,958,088,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.73 | $1,958,088,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.73 | $1,958,088,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.73 | $1,958,088,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.73 | $1,958,088,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.73 | $1,958,088,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.73 | $1,958,088,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.73 | $1,958,088,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.73 | $1,958,088,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.73 | $1,958,088,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.73 | $1,958,088,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.73 | $1,958,088,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.73 | $1,958,088,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.73 | $1,958,088,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.73 | $1,958,088,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.73 | $1,958,088,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.73 | $1,958,088,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.73 | $1,958,088,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.73 | $1,958,088,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.71 | $2,012,968,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.71 | $2,012,968,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.71 | $2,012,968,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.71 | $2,012,968,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.71 | $2,012,968,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.71 | $1,963,408,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.71 | $1,963,408,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.71 | $1,963,408,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.77 | $1,992,408,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.77 | $1,992,408,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.77 | $1,992,408,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.77 | $1,992,408,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.77 | $1,992,408,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.77 | $1,992,408,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.77 | $1,992,408,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.77 | $1,992,408,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.77 | $1,992,408,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.77 | $1,992,408,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.77 | $1,992,408,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.77 | $1,992,408,775 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.77 | $1,992,408,775 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.