Green Plains, Inc. (GPRE)
NASDAQMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.66-2.91%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GPRE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -51.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 7.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 59.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers
GPRE — credit agreement
Dated 2026-04-23
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. As previously disclosed, on March 25, 2022, Green Plains Finance Company LLC, Green Plains Grain Company LLC, and Green Plains Trade Group LLC (collectively, the “Borrowers”), all wholly owned subsidiaries of Green Plains Inc. (the “Company”), together with the Company as guarantor, entered into a $350 million senior secured sustainability-linked revolving Loan and Security Agreement (the “Revolver Facility”) with a group of financial institution le…
Why it matters: The agreement covers at least $250 million of credits expected in 2026. Actual transfer depends on credit generation and program rules.
Supportive ifCompany filings confirm that at least $250 million of 2026 credits transferred. Required reports and closing steps are complete.
Worry ifCompany filings show that less than $250 million transferred. Or they report a failed closing or unmet credit terms.
Why it matters: Green Plains said it would receive this cash in Q4 for credits through June 30. The cash could support debt reduction.
Supportive ifThe company reports receipt of the stated $140 million cash payment in Q4 2026.
Worry ifThe company reports that the Q4 payment was delayed, reduced, or not received.
Why it matters: Management said it plans to use cash to reduce debt. Debt was $483.7 million at June 30, 2026.
Supportive ifA later company report shows total debt below $483.7 million. This is after the Q4 credit cash arrives.
Worry ifA later company report shows total debt at or above $483.7 million. This is after the Q4 credit cash arrives.
Why it matters: 45Z credits made up $58.7 million of Q2 adjusted EBITDA. The Q3 report can show whether that value is holding.
Watch forQ3 results show 45Z credit value of at least $58.7 million, net of discounts and costs.
Also watch forQ3 results show 45Z credit value below $58.7 million, net of discounts and costs.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$197 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $532 loss on $10,000 · 5.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,985 loss on $10,000 · 29.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.