Green Plains, Inc. (GPRE)
NASDAQMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.45+3.28%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GPRE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -37.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 18.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 55.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GPRE — credit agreement
Dated 2026-04-23
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. As previously disclosed, on March 25, 2022, Green Plains Finance Company LLC, Green Plains Grain Company LLC, and Green Plains Trade Group LLC (collectively, the “Borrowers”), all wholly owned subsidiaries of Green Plains Inc. (the “Company”), together with the Company as guarantor, entered into a $350 million senior secured sustainability-linked revolving Loan and Security Agreement (the “Revolver Facility”) with a group of financial institution le…
Why it matters: The Q2 earnings report will provide insights into Green Plains' performance and financial health.
Watch forThe earnings report shows better financial numbers than before. This is compared to past quarters.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows ongoing losses. It also shows worse financial numbers.
Why it matters: Management aims to reduce debt using improved cash flow. Progress here would signal financial health and stability.
Supportive ifTotal debt decreases further from $483.7 million reported in Q2.
Worry ifTotal debt increases or remains above $483.7 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Updates on production tax credits can signal growth potential. This is important for future earnings.
Watch forManagement gives a good update on production tax credits in the next earnings call.
Also watch forManagement gives a bad update or no update on production tax credits next earnings call.
Why it matters: A positive shift in sector revenue growth could signal a recovery phase. This would benefit Green Plains and its peers.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth turns positive after being near -2 percent.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains negative or worsens.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$207 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $610 loss on $10,000 · 6.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,699 loss on $10,000 · 27.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If this guidance is confirmed, it shows management's confidence in earnings. It shows their focus on tax credits and improving operations.
Supportive ifManagement says Q3 EBITDA will be between $200 million and $225 million.
Worry ifManagement cuts Q3 EBITDA guidance to less than $200 million.
Why it matters: Using cash flow to reduce debt indicates financial discipline. It strengthens the balance sheet and supports future growth.
Supportive ifManagement reports total debt is below $480 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifTotal debt increases above $490 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows management is good at making money. This is key for investors.
Supportive ifOperating income exceeds $50 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $40 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows good cost control and efficiency. This can help investors.
Supportive ifOperating income was over $44.8 million in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $44.8 million in Q2.
Why it matters: More cuts in expenses would boost profits and cash flow. This helps management focus on costs.
Supportive ifSG&A expenses drop below $21 million in Q3.
Worry ifSG&A expenses rise above $21 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Updates on these tax credits are important for future earnings. They affect adjusted EBITDA and profits.
Watch forManagement announces new tax credits of over $60 million for Q3.
Also watch forManagement indicates tax credits will be less than $55 million for Q3.