GRAIL, Inc. (GRAL)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-09-04
$80.34-0.35%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — FDA approval and regulatory clarity: FDA uncertainty flagged by Goldman Sachs (2026-06-05); no concrete PMA submission date or approval metric reported.
GRAIL leads in cancer blood tests. Revenue may grow 22-32% in 2026. New CEO brings fresh leadership. Partnerships with Samsung expand its market.
FDA approval is uncertain and may delay growth. Legal issues could hurt confidence. The company still loses money and EPS is negative.
The price is about 34% above our fair value near $51. Analysts expect 27% revenue growth. Our fair value is below the Street median of $58.
Breaks if: CEO fails to deliver strategic progress or growth
Breaks if: FDA delays or rejects PMA submission
YoY revenue growth falls below 22% in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on growth in the healthcare sector. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent financial results have not met industry expectations despite some positive developments.
The market currently reflects an expensive valuation compared to peers, indicating high expectations for future performance. There is a notable expectations gap, suggesting that the stock may be priced for more success than recent results have shown.
Management is on track with priorities such as expanding the Galleri test and achieving revenue growth targets. However, recent financial performance has been weak, and there is elevated risk due to potential economic downturns affecting the healthcare sector.
The thesis hinges on several key factors, including the company's ability to maintain guidance and the performance of sector leaders. Additionally, macroeconomic conditions, such as job growth, will play a significant role in shaping investor sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation fell by 10.6 points (from 25.5 to 14.9).
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats impacting the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Target total revenue growth in the range of 22% to 32% for fiscal year 2026.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Total revenue grew 26% year-over-year to $44.7M in 2026-Q2 and 28% to $40.8M in 2026-Q1, consistent with management's 2026 guidance of 22-32% growth. The trajectory matches management's stated revenue growth target and is delivering on this priority.
“Total revenue in the second quarter grew 26% year-over-year to $44.7 million.”
“Total revenue in the first quarter grew 28% year over year to $40.8 million.”
“2026 guidance: 22-32% growth.”
Breaks if: Partnerships fail to expand or integrate as planned
Focus on expanding partnerships in digital health and integrating into health systems.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, GRAL's performance will depend on its execution of growth strategies and external economic factors. Not investment advice.