Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
GRAIL, Inc. (GRAL)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-04
$119.13-17.08%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GRAL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successful CEO transition and execution | A supporting condition in GRAIL, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Stable or improving execution under CEO Dr. Joshua Ofman. | Improving | CEO fails to deliver strategic progress or growth | Qualitative: FDA panel support (Sep 24) vs Revenue miss (Nov 4) FDA panel backed Galleri test (Sep 24), but Q3 revenue missed estimates (Nov 4). Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth story, not a proven durable compounder, because it is loss-making and its longer-term case depends on commercial adoption and regulatory progress. The thesis is on watch: Galleri is growing quickly, while recent financial performance trails its industry cohort and risk is elevated.
GRAL is valued at a 7.25% premium to peers, and the valuation is tagged as stretched. The model points to a modest expectations gap, but confidence is low, so it is unclear how much growth and regulatory optionality the market already assumes.
Near term, management is on track with its 2026 revenue-growth goal, and Galleri volume and revenue have grown strongly. The FDA submission is complete, with advisory committee review expected in fall 2026, though progress on this priority is mixed. Recent results have been weak relative to the industry cohort, and a guidance cut or further labor-market weakening could add pressure to the business outlook.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued Galleri growth, the development of commercial partnerships, and progress through FDA review. Near term, a guidance cut would be a negative signal, while stronger results and guidance from healthcare bellwethers such as TMO, DHR, and NTRA could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, GRAL combines strong Galleri growth and regulatory progress with losses, elevated risk, and a stretched valuation. The thesis remains on watch, with execution and FDA review central to its direction. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in GRAIL, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Clear path to PMA submission and approval in 2026. |
| Improving |
| FDA delays or rejects PMA submission |
FDA panel support vs PMA approval target FDA panel supported Galleri in Sept 2026; stock surged. Nov 2026 revenue miss noted but does not trigger regulatory trip condition. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue growth of 22-32% in 2026 | A primary condition in GRAIL, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 22-32% growth in 2026. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 22% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 25.72% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 22-32% growth in 2026. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202625.723047 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Expand partnerships in digital health and Asia | Partnerships with Samsung expand its market. | Intact | Partnerships fail to expand or integrate as planned | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-10.62 → $-10.18 · observed estimates
$0.22B → $0.23B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-10.62 | $223,492,038 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-10.62 | $223,492,038 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-10.62 | $223,492,038 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-10.62 | $223,492,038 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-10.62 | $223,492,038 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-10.62 | $223,492,038 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-10.62 | $223,492,038 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-9.72 | $223,630,030 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-10.62 | $223,492,038 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-9.72 | $223,630,030 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-10.62 | $223,492,038 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-10.62 | $223,492,038 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-10.62 | $223,492,038 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-10.62 | $223,492,038 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-10.65 | $225,328,395 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-9.43 | $221,153,400 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-9.43 | $221,153,400 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-10.65 | $225,328,395 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-10.65 | $225,328,395 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-9.87 | $226,817,350 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-10.65 | $225,328,395 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-10.65 | $225,328,395 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-10.65 | $225,328,395 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-10.65 | $225,328,395 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-10.65 | $225,328,395 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-10.65 | $225,328,395 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-10.63 | $226,828,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-10.63 | $226,828,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-10.63 | $226,828,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-10.63 | $226,828,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-10.63 | $226,828,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-10.63 | $226,828,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-10.63 | $226,828,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-10.63 | $226,828,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-10.63 | $226,828,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-10.63 | $226,828,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-10.63 | $226,828,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-10.63 | $226,828,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-10.63 | $226,828,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-10.63 | $226,828,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-10.63 | $226,828,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-10.63 | $226,828,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-10.63 | $226,828,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-10.63 | $226,828,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-10.63 | $226,828,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-10.63 | $226,828,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-10.63 | $226,828,462 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-10.20 | $226,733,654 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-10.20 | $226,733,654 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-10.20 | $226,733,654 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-10.20 | $226,733,654 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-10.20 | $226,733,654 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-10.20 | $226,733,654 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-10.20 | $226,733,654 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-10.20 | $226,733,654 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-10.20 | $226,733,654 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-10.20 | $226,733,654 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-10.20 | $226,752,594 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-10.20 | $226,752,594 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-10.19 | $226,753,267 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-10.19 | $226,753,267 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-10.19 | $226,753,267 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-10.19 | $226,752,594 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-10.19 | $226,752,594 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-10.19 | $226,752,594 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-10.19 | $226,752,594 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-10.19 | $226,752,594 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-10.19 | $226,752,594 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-10.19 | $226,752,594 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-10.19 | $226,616,231 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-10.20 | $226,616,231 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-10.20 | $226,616,231 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-10.20 | $226,616,231 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-10.20 | $226,616,231 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-10.20 | $226,616,231 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-10.21 | $226,675,486 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-10.21 | $226,675,486 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-10.21 | $226,675,486 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-10.21 | $226,675,486 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-10.21 | $226,675,486 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-10.22 | $226,675,486 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-10.27 | $226,952,913 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-10.27 | $226,952,913 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-10.27 | $226,952,913 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-10.27 | $226,952,913 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-10.27 | $226,952,913 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-10.27 | $226,952,913 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-10.27 | $226,953,586 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-10.27 | $226,943,822 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-10.27 | $226,943,822 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-10.18 | $227,219,688 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-10.18 | $227,219,688 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-10.18 | $227,219,688 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-10.18 | $227,219,688 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-10.18 | $227,219,688 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-10.18 | $227,219,688 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-10.18 | $227,219,688 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-10.18 | $227,219,688 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-10.18 | $227,219,688 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-10.18 | $227,219,688 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-10.18 | $227,219,688 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-10.18 | $227,219,688 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-10.18 | $227,219,688 | 4 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.