GRAIL, Inc. (GRAL)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-05
$119.13-17.08%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GRAL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 28.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 31.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GRAL — debt issuance
Dated 2025-11-14
Other Events. On November 13, 2025, GRAIL, Inc. (the “Company”) filed a prospectus supplement pursuant to Rule 424(b) under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Act”), with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) relating to the resale of 3,925,767 shares of common stock, $0.001 par value per share (“common stock”), of the Company that were issued by the Company to the selling stockholders named therein, which consists of: (i) 1,927,194 shares of common stock and (ii) 1,998…
Why it matters: Q1 and Q2 revenue growth fell within this range. Full-year results will show whether sales meet the stated goal.
Watch forFull-year 2026 revenue growth lands at or above 22% and at or below 32%.
Also watch forFull-year 2026 revenue growth falls below 22% or rises above 32%.
Why it matters: GRAIL lost $90.3 million on an adjusted EBITDA basis in Q2. A smaller loss would show better cost control as sales grow.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA loss is greater than $90.3 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA loss is less than $90.3 million.
Why it matters: Galleri volume rose 35% in Q2, while revenue rose 24%. Continued volume growth would show that demand is still growing.
Supportive ifQ3 Galleri test volume grows at least 35% year over year from the Q3 2025 base.
Worry ifQ3 Galleri test volume grows less than 24% year over year, below Q2 revenue growth.
Why it matters: Epic integration may let doctors order Galleri within their usual records system. A launch by year-end would mark a concrete step in expanding access.
Supportive ifGRAIL or Epic confirms broad Galleri ordering is live in Epic by December 31, 2026.
Worry ifBroad Epic access is delayed past December 31, 2026, or the launch lacks direct test ordering.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$302 on $10,000 · ±3.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $818 loss on $10,000 · 8.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,292 loss on $10,000 · 62.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.