GRAIL, Inc. (GRAL)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-09-04
$80.34-0.35%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GRAL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 74.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 27.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 47.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GRAL — debt issuance
Dated 2025-11-14
Other Events. On November 13, 2025, GRAIL, Inc. (the “Company”) filed a prospectus supplement pursuant to Rule 424(b) under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Act”), with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) relating to the resale of 3,925,767 shares of common stock, $0.001 par value per share (“common stock”), of the Company that were issued by the Company to the selling stockholders named therein, which consists of: (i) 1,927,194 shares of common stock and (ii) 1,998…
Why it matters: Expanding partnerships can drive growth and validate GRAIL's strategy. Stagnation may signal issues.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least two new partnerships in digital health.
Worry ifNo new partnerships announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Working well with Epic could help Galleri reach more people.
Supportive ifNews of successful steps or partnerships with health systems using Epic.
Worry ifDelays or problems in the integration with Epic.
Why it matters: Meeting the revenue growth guidance of 22-32% is crucial for investor trust and future funding.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue grew more than 22% compared to last year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue grew less than 22% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows management's growth plan is working. It shows market acceptance.
Watch forTotal revenue grows between 22-32% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Also watch forTotal revenue growth falls below 22% or above 32% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$257 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $745 loss on $10,000 · 7.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,292 loss on $10,000 · 62.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: GRAIL aims for 22-32% revenue growth in 2026. Q2 results will show if they are on track.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 5% compared to Q1's $40.8M.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is below 5% compared to Q1.
Why it matters: This integration could help more patients and doctors access the Galleri test.
Supportive ifEpic EHR integration will be done and working by the end of 2026.
Worry ifIntegration fails to launch by the end of 2026 or faces significant delays.
Why it matters: Meeting the revenue growth target shows strong market demand for Galleri. It reflects the company's commercial success.
Supportive ifGalleri revenue grows 22% year-over-year or more in Q3 2026.
Worry ifGalleri revenue growth falls below 22% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: New partnerships can increase Galleri's market reach. This can lead to higher test volumes and revenue.
Supportive ifNew partnerships will help more patients access Galleri.
Worry ifNo new partnerships will help expand access to Galleri.
Why it matters: New leadership can shift company direction. Positive changes may enhance growth prospects.
Watch forThe new CEO, Dr. Joshua Ofman, announced good plans for the company.
Also watch forThe new CEO has not announced any big changes or plans.
Why it matters: High growth in test volume shows strong market demand and good commercialization.
Supportive ifGalleri test volume growth is over 30% year-over-year in the next quarters.
Worry ifGalleri test volume growth is less than 30% from last year.
Why it matters: The FDA's review is crucial for Galleri's market acceptance and growth potential. A positive review could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifFDA committee meeting is set for fall 2026 to review the PMA submission.
Worry ifDelay or cancellation of the FDA committee review is possible.
Why it matters: Good trial results can boost Galleri's trust and acceptance. This may increase sales.
Supportive ifResults show Galleri finds cancer better than before.
Worry ifResults show Galleri does not find cancer better than before.
Why it matters: Completing this submission is crucial for GRAIL's regulatory progress. Delays could hinder growth.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of PMA submission for Galleri completed by the end of Q3.
Worry ifFurther delays in the PMA submission timeline.