Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
GRI BIO INC (GRI)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.55+8.39%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GRI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain cash of approximately $11 million to fund operations into 2027 | GRI Bio has about $11 million cash to fund operations into 2027. | Intact | cash falls below $11 million before mid-2027 | Cash and cash equivalents: $10.947M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $11 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Date unavailable10,947,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 13, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk clinical-stage biotechnology business, with its multi-year view tied to development progress rather than established profits. The thesis is intact, but confidence is low and the risk label recently moved higher.
The valuation evidence calls GRI cheap versus peers, but model confidence is low and the snapshot gives no clear measure of what investors expect from the drug program. No fragility signals were flagged, though that does not remove the risks tied to losses and clinical development.
Near term, earnings risk is elevated, with a history of erratic surprises; the recent record includes both a beat and a miss. Across the multi-year view, management continues to advance GRI-0621 for IPF, while cash is expected to fund operations into Q2 2027; losses have narrowed, but cash burn remains negative.
The main swing factor is continued clinical and regulatory progress for GRI-0621, including the planned pivotal adaptive Phase 2b/3 study. Near term, a guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would add pressure, while stronger results and guidance from healthcare peers could support sector momentum.
The 1-to-3-year thesis remains intact but fragile in its evidence: drug-development progress and cash management matter most, while losses and elevated near-term risk limit confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 1 of 1 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Based on the Company’s current operating plan, GRI Bio believes existing cash resources will be sufficient to fund planned operating expenses and capital expenditure requirements into the second quarter of 2027.” “First Quarter 2026 Financial Results Cash and cash equivalents totaled approximately $11.0 million as of March 31, 2026, compared to approximately $8.2 million as of December 31, 2025.”
Control operating losses near negative $2.0 million per quarter | A primary condition in GRI BIO INC's published investment case. The stated target is operating loss >= -$2.0 million per quarter. | Broken | losses worsen beyond -$2.0 million per quarter | Operating income: $-1.648M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating loss >= -$2.0 million per quarter. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 14, 2026-1,648,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 1 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Research and development expenses were approximately $0.4 million for the three months ended March 31, 2026, compared to approximately $1.6 million for the same period in 2025.” “Net loss for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, was approximately $2.0 million, compared to approximately $3.0 million for the same period in 2025.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve new revenue of about $11 million by mid-2027 | GRI Bio has about $11 million cash to fund operations into 2027. | Intact | revenue fails to reach $11 million by mid-2027 | Revenue: $0 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$11 million. Target period ends 2027-06-30; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Aug 14, 20260 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-2.54 → $-2.00 · observed estimates
Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-2.54 | $0 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-2.54 | $0 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-2.54 | $0 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-2.54 | $0 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-2.54 | $0 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-2.54 | $0 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-2.54 | $0 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-2.54 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-4.81 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-3.79 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-3.79 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-3.79 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-3.79 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-3.79 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-3.79 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-3.79 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-3.79 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-3.79 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-3.79 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-3.79 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-3.79 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-3.79 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-3.79 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-3.79 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-3.79 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-3.79 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-2.00 | Unavailable | 2 / 0 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.