NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryScientific & Technical InstrumentsSnapshot 2026-07-08
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $243.48. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $249 GRMN trades at 28× p/e, in line with its 23× p/e peer median — but our blended $191 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $238–$325. Note: our $191 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($238–$325). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $268 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$238.00 – $325.00 (median $249.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-20
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 62% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 7.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $8.56/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $249.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $330.68 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $342.51 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $99.07 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $98.65 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $120.18 | 22.3 | 5.40 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $143.22 | 19.1 | 7.50 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $200.96 | 22.3 | 9.03 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $77.96 | 2.0 | 38.56 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $356.50 | 39.5 | 9.03 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $67.68 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $235.17 | 26.0 | 9.03 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $213.20 | 22.3 | 9.58 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $157.59 | 22.3 | 7.08 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $217.83 | 19.1 | 11.41 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $152.02 | 22.3 | 6.83 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $60.35 | 2.0 | 29.85 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $269.67 | 39.5 | 6.83 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $177.89 | 26.0 | 6.83 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $188.81 | 22.3 | 8.48 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $288.08 | 19.1 | 15.08 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $90.22 | 22.3 | 4.05 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $35.82 | 2.0 | 17.72 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $160.04 | 39.5 | 4.05 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $105.57 | 26.0 | 4.05 | Analyst | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
