Garmin (GRMN)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$277.03-0.05%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Garmin grows revenue about 11% a year to nearly $7.9 billion in 2026. Profit margins stay strong near 58.5%. Earnings per share rise above $9.35 in 2026. The company keeps paying a healthy dividend of $4.20 per share.
Revenue growth slows below 7% and margins shrink below 55%. Earnings per share fall short of $8.15. Rising costs or weaker demand hurt profits and cash flow.
The market prices in about 11% revenue growth and expects earnings growth near 15% over three years. Our fair value is about 30% below the current price, reflecting more cautious assumptions than the Street.
Breaks if: Dividend cut or payout below $4.00 per share
Breaks if: EPS falls below $8.15 per share in FY26
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below 56% in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a durable compounder with a stable management team and a focus on innovation. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent strong financial performance, but it is facing challenges from the broader consumer discretionary sector.
The market appears to expect a premium valuation due to GRMN's strong execution and recent earnings beats. However, this premium is stretched compared to peers, indicating that the market may be pricing in higher growth expectations.
Management has shown a commitment to raising revenue and earnings guidance, with recent results indicating strong growth in the fitness segment. However, there is a moderate risk of missing future targets, especially given the recent trend of earnings surprises trending down.
Key factors include the ability of GRMN to maintain its guidance without cuts, the potential impact of inflation on consumer spending, and the performance of major sector players like AMZN and TSLA. These factors will significantly influence GRMN's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports revenue and EPS guidance for 2026. New product launches enhance innovation and growth potential across segments.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 24% in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $7.5 billion in FY26
Garmin aims to achieve approximately $7.9 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2026.
In the next 1 to 3 years, GRMN's performance will depend on its execution and external economic conditions. Not investment advice.