Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp
Garmin (GRMN)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$286.40-0.95%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
11.18 → 11.49 EPS · FY ending Dec 27, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GRMN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend payout of $4.20 per share | The company keeps paying a healthy dividend of $4.20 per share. | Intact | Dividend cut or payout below $4.00 per share | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a quality growth business with a durable premium, rather than a turnaround or a deep-value case. The long-term thesis is intact, supported by recent earnings beats and higher guidance, though execution is uneven across segments.
GRMN is valued at a 1.73-times premium to peers, and its valuation has risen recently. The expectations gap is positive but modest, while model confidence is low, so the evidence supports describing valuation as expensive rather than making a precise claim about what the market assumes.
Near term, the company’s higher 2026 revenue and EPS guidance is on track so far, and recent quarterly revenue growth included gains in Fitness and Outdoor. Auto OEM revenue declined, and the full-year result is still pending; the stated near-term miss risk is low, but the snapshot notes a deep miss in recent history.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on continued revenue growth from market diversification and differentiated products, alongside delivery against the raised guidance. A guidance cut after a recent increase would damage credibility, while strength or weakness among sector bellwethers could affect the Consumer Discretionary backdrop.
The multi-year view remains intact, with recent execution supporting growth, but the expensive valuation raises the importance of meeting expectations. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company keeps paying a healthy dividend of $4.20 per share. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $8.15 per share in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $2.80 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $9.35 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 20262.8 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Gross margin maintains near 58.5% | A primary condition in Garmin's published investment case. The stated target is >= 58.5%. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 56% in FY26 | Gross margin: 63.33% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= 58.5%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 202663.329299 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating margin stays above 25.5% | A supporting condition in Garmin's published investment case. The stated target is >= 25.5%. | Intact | Operating margin falls below 24% in FY26 | Operating margin: 30.8% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= 25.5%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 202630.796807 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches approximately $7.9 billion | A primary condition in Garmin's published investment case. The stated target is >= $7.9 billion. | Intact | Revenue falls below $7.5 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $1.986B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $7.9 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 20261,986,076,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$10.45 → $11.49 · observed estimates
$8.82B → $9.15B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $10.45 | $8,820,565,013 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $10.45 | $8,820,565,013 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $10.45 | $8,820,565,013 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $10.45 | $8,820,565,013 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $10.45 | $8,820,565,013 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $10.49 | $8,820,565,013 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $10.89 | $8,983,369,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $10.89 | $8,983,369,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $10.89 | $8,983,369,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $11.01 | $9,016,369,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $11.01 | $9,016,369,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $11.01 | $9,016,369,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $11.01 | $9,016,369,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $11.01 | $9,016,369,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $11.01 | $9,016,369,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $11.01 | $9,016,369,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $11.01 | $9,016,369,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $11.01 | $9,016,369,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $11.01 | $9,016,369,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $11.01 | $9,016,369,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $11.01 | $9,016,369,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $11.01 | $9,016,369,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $11.01 | $9,016,369,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $11.01 | $9,016,369,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $11.01 | $9,016,369,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $11.01 | $9,016,369,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $11.14 | $9,090,569,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $11.14 | $9,090,569,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $11.14 | $9,090,569,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $11.14 | $9,090,569,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $11.14 | $9,090,569,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $11.14 | $9,090,569,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $11.14 | $9,090,569,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $11.14 | $9,090,569,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $11.14 | $9,090,569,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $11.16 | $9,090,569,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $11.16 | $9,090,569,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $11.16 | $9,090,569,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $11.16 | $9,090,569,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $11.16 | $9,090,569,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $11.18 | $9,104,529,422 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $11.28 | $9,098,941,185 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $11.28 | $9,098,941,185 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $11.28 | $9,098,941,185 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $11.28 | $9,098,941,185 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $11.28 | $9,098,941,185 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $11.28 | $9,098,941,185 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $11.28 | $9,098,941,185 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $11.28 | $9,098,941,185 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $11.28 | $9,098,941,185 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $11.28 | $9,098,941,185 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $11.28 | $9,098,941,185 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $11.28 | $9,098,941,185 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $11.28 | $9,098,941,185 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $11.50 | $9,111,025,384 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $11.56 | $9,122,192,051 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $11.63 | $9,181,692,051 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $11.63 | $9,181,692,051 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $11.63 | $9,181,692,051 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $11.49 | $9,150,508,021 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $11.49 | $9,150,508,021 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.