Garmin (GRMN)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$277.03-0.05%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GRMN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 33.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GRMN — dividend update
Dated 2026-06-08
Other Events On June 5, 2026, Garmin issued a press release, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit No. 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein, announcing that its shareholders have approved a cash dividend in the amount of $4.20 per outstanding share out of Garmin’s reserve from capital contribution payable in four equal installments on dates to be determined by the Board of Directors in its discretion. The Board has determined that the first installment of $1.05 will be payable on…
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this target supports Garmin's guidance of $7.9 billion for 2026. It shows strong demand across segments.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue reported at or above $1.95 billion.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue reported below $1.85 billion.
Why it matters: A strong gross margin helps the company make more money. It shows good financial health.
Supportive ifGross margin reported above 58.5% for Q2 2026.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 58.5% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Confirming this guidance would show strong confidence in demand and how well the company runs.
Supportive ifManagement confirms full year 2026 revenue guidance at or above $8.05 billion.
Worry ifManagement lowers its revenue estimate for 2026 to less than $8.05 billion.
Why it matters: A drop in gross margin may show rising costs or pricing issues. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 60% in Q3.
Less concerning ifGross margin remains at or above 60% in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$97 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $276 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,797 loss on $10,000 · 28.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Hitting this EPS target shows strong financial health and growth potential. It can boost stock performance.
Supportive ifGarmin reports pro forma EPS of $9.35 or higher in the next earnings release.
Worry ifGarmin reports pro forma EPS below $9.35 in the next earnings release.
Why it matters: News about this program can show management's trust in future cash flow. It also shows they want to give value to shareholders.
Watch forThey announced share buybacks of more than $100 million.
Also watch forNo share repurchases reported in the next quarter.
Why it matters: On-time dividend payments show good cash flow and smart spending.
Supportive ifDividend payment of $1.05 per share is made on September 25, 2026.
Worry ifA dividend payment is late or smaller.
Why it matters: New products can drive revenue growth and enhance market position.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least two new product launches in Q3.
Worry ifNo new product launches announced in Q3.
Why it matters: Achieving this EPS target is crucial for investor confidence and growth outlook.
Supportive ifPro forma EPS reported at $9.35 or higher for 2026.
Worry ifPro forma EPS reported below $9.35 for 2026.
Why it matters: Maintaining revenue growth is key to hitting the $7.9 billion target for 2026.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth of 9% or more compared to Q2 2025.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 9% year over year.
Why it matters: New successful products could increase sales in the fitness segment. This would help overall revenue.
Supportive ifLaunch of new fitness products leads to a significant increase in sales in the following quarter.
Worry ifNew product launches do not lead to increased sales in the fitness segment.
Why it matters: Keeping revenue guidance shows the company can meet growth expectations. This affects investor confidence.
Supportive ifGarmin confirms revenue guidance for 2026 remains unchanged in the next earnings call.
Worry ifGarmin lowers revenue guidance for 2026 during the next earnings call.
Why it matters: A slowdown in fitness revenue growth may show less demand for wearables. This could hurt overall performance.
Worry ifFitness segment revenue growth below 20% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifFitness segment revenue growth remains above 20% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: The EPS guidance shows that management expects profits and growth to continue.
Supportive ifManagement confirms full year 2026 pro forma EPS guidance at $10.00.
Worry ifManagement revises full year 2026 pro forma EPS guidance down from $10.00.