Garmin (GRMN)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$289.15+6.52%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GRMN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 33.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GRMN — dividend update
Dated 2026-06-08
Other Events On June 5, 2026, Garmin issued a press release, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit No. 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein, announcing that its shareholders have approved a cash dividend in the amount of $4.20 per outstanding share out of Garmin’s reserve from capital contribution payable in four equal installments on dates to be determined by the Board of Directors in its discretion. The Board has determined that the first installment of $1.05 will be payable on…
Why it matters: Auto OEM revenue fell 20% in Q3, and the segment posted an operating loss. A recovery would ease this drag on company results.
Supportive ifAuto OEM revenue rises from a year ago, and the segment earns operating income.
Worry ifAuto OEM revenue falls from a year ago, and the segment reports another operating loss.
Why it matters: These segments grew 16% and 20% in Q3. Management cited holiday sales momentum, so the next report can test whether demand lasted.
Supportive ifIn Q4, Fitness and Outdoor revenue both rise year over year.
Worry ifIn Q4, either Fitness or Outdoor revenue falls year over year.
Why it matters: Garmin raised its 2026 targets twice. Meeting them would confirm that strong results carried through the full year.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 revenue is at least $8.15 billion and pro forma EPS is at least $10.80.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 revenue is below $8.15 billion or pro forma EPS is below $10.80.
Why it matters: Q3 margin reached 63.3%, helped by lower product costs, favorable mix, and $33 million in tariff refunds. These factors may not repeat.
Watch forFull-year 2026 gross margin is at least the guided 61.0%.
Also watch forFull-year 2026 gross margin is below the guided 61.0%.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$97 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $276 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,561 loss on $10,000 · 15.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Garmin set a $1.05 dividend payment for December 24. The payment is a clear, dated test of its stated capital return plan.
Watch forGarmin pays $1.05 per share on December 24, 2026.
Also watch forGarmin does not make the $1.05 per-share payment on December 24, 2026.