Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. (GRNT)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.67+0.86%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.73 → 0.86 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GRNT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital expenditures between $345M and $385M in 2026 | The company plans to keep capital spending between $345M and $385M in 2026. | Intact | CAPEX exceeds $385M or falls below $345M in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $52.719M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: CAPEX $345M to $385M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202652,719,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a small-cap energy growth story, not yet a durable compounder, because the business is loss-making. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management priorities are mostly on track, but recent performance remains below its industry cohort.
GRNT is valued at a sizable premium to peers, and the evidence labels expectations as stretched. That leaves less room for weaker execution, especially with a turbulent sector backdrop; the valuation model has medium confidence.
Near term, production is progressing toward management’s 2026 range, while general and administrative spending and capital spending are broadly tracking guidance. Recent results have been mixed, with an earnings miss in May followed by a beat in August, and the risk label has eased from elevated to moderate. Losses remain a central concern, and another guidance cut would add pressure to the operating thesis.
The multi-year thesis depends on production reaching management’s guided range while cost control and capital spending remain disciplined. In the near term, a guidance cut is a meaningful downside risk; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from energy bellwethers could sustain the sector tailwind, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, GRNT’s setup combines progress on operating priorities with loss-making results and a stretched valuation. The thesis remains watchful and hinges on delivery against guidance and the direction of the energy sector. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Management aims to control cash G&A expenses between $25M and $27M. |
| Intact |
| Cash G&A expenses fall outside $25M to $27M range in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “During the quarter, general and administrative expenses totaled $9.2 million, or $3.14 per Boe, inclusive of $1.3 million of non-cash stock-based compensation.” “During the quarter, general and administrative expenses totaled $9.1 million, or $2.93 per Boe, inclusive of $1.4 million of non-cash stock-based compensation.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Operating income improves to positive territory | Granite Ridge is cutting costs and improving operating income, which rose to $14.8M in Q1 2026 from a loss of $36.4M in Q4 2025. | Intact | Operating income remains negative over next 4 quarters | Operating income: $39.017M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income > $0M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 202639,017,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.64 → $0.86 · observed estimates
$0.56B → $0.65B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.64 | $558,033,330 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.60 | $554,020,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.66 | $563,000,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.61 | $558,800,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.61 | $558,800,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.61 | $558,800,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.61 | $558,800,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.61 | $558,800,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.61 | $558,800,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.61 | $558,800,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.61 | $558,800,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.66 | $563,000,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.66 | $563,000,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.66 | $563,000,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.61 | $558,800,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.66 | $563,000,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.66 | $563,000,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.66 | $563,000,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.63 | $570,966,670 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.63 | $570,966,670 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.61 | $558,800,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.61 | $558,800,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.61 | $558,800,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.61 | $558,800,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.61 | $558,800,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.61 | $558,800,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.64 | $574,180,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.64 | $574,180,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.66 | $574,180,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.66 | $574,180,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.66 | $574,180,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.66 | $589,180,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.66 | $589,180,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.66 | $589,180,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.66 | $589,180,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.66 | $589,180,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.66 | $589,180,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.66 | $589,180,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.66 | $589,180,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.66 | $589,180,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.66 | $589,180,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.66 | $589,180,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.66 | $589,180,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.66 | $589,180,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.66 | $589,180,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.66 | $589,180,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.65 | $589,180,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.65 | $589,180,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.65 | $589,180,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.70 | $599,380,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.70 | $599,380,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.70 | $599,380,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.70 | $599,380,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.70 | $599,380,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.70 | $599,380,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.70 | $599,380,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.70 | $599,380,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.70 | $599,380,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.70 | $599,380,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.70 | $599,380,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.70 | $599,380,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.70 | $599,380,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.70 | $599,380,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.70 | $599,380,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.70 | $599,380,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.70 | $599,380,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.70 | $599,380,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.70 | $599,380,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.70 | $599,380,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.70 | $599,380,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.70 | $599,380,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.73 | $599,380,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.73 | $599,380,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.73 | $599,380,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.73 | $599,380,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.73 | $599,380,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.73 | $599,380,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.73 | $599,380,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.73 | $599,380,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.73 | $599,380,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.73 | $599,380,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.73 | $599,380,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.73 | $599,380,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.82 | $619,180,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.82 | $619,180,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.82 | $619,180,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.82 | $619,180,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.82 | $619,180,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.82 | $635,580,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.86 | $646,380,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.86 | $646,380,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.86 | $646,380,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.86 | $646,380,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.86 | $646,380,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.86 | $646,380,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.86 | $646,380,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.86 | $646,380,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.86 | $646,380,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.86 | $646,380,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.86 | $646,380,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.86 | $646,380,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.86 | $646,380,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.86 | $646,380,000 | 2 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.