Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. (GRNT)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$5.080.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GRNT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -6.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 14.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GRNT — director transition
Dated 2026-08-19
Director — John Cocke, Jonathan Adams: The filing discloses the appointment of two new independent directors to expand the board size, which is a routine governance action rather than an executive departure.
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows the company is saving money. It is also working better.
Supportive ifOperating income was over $14.8M for Q2.
Worry ifOperating income was under $14.8M for Q2.
Why it matters: More cash flow shows strong performance. It helps with future investments.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations for Q2 exceeds $60 million.
Worry ifCash flow from operations for Q2 falls below $55 million.
Why it matters: If production growth matches or exceeds 18%, it shows strong operational performance. This could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 daily production growth of 18% or more compared to Q2 2025.
Worry ifQ2 daily production growth falls below 10% compared to Q2 2025.
Why it matters: Keeping G&A expenses in this range shows cost control. It supports future profitability.
Supportive ifG&A expenses reported at or below $27 million for Q2.
Worry ifG&A expenses exceed $27 million for Q2.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$138 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $459 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,803 loss on $10,000 · 28.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A rise in adjusted EBITDAX means better efficiency. It also means more profit.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDAX for Q2 is over $75 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDAX for Q2 drops below $65 million.
Why it matters: This will change Granite Ridge's governance and shareholder base. It may lower investor confidence.
Watch forAnnouncement of a new share distribution by Grey Rock.
Also watch forNo announcement of further share distributions by Grey Rock.
Why it matters: Keeping costs low helps make money and manage cash flow. This is key for dividends.
Supportive ifGeneral and administrative costs were less than $27 million.
Worry ifGeneral and administrative costs were more than $27 million.
Why it matters: Staying within this range shows Granite Ridge is managing its investments well. It reflects on capital discipline.
Supportive ifTotal capital spending for Q3 was between $345M and $385M.
Worry ifTotal capital spending for Q3 was outside the $345M to $385M range.
Why it matters: Staying within this range shows Granite Ridge is managing its capital well. It supports future growth.
Supportive ifCapex reported within the $345M to $385M range in the next quarterly report.
Worry ifCapex outside this range means capital is not being used well.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth improves, it may signal a recovery for Granite Ridge. This could boost its performance.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth exceeds 2% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can improve after the recent earnings miss.
Watch forQ2 earnings per share beats analyst expectations by at least 10%.
Also watch forQ2 earnings per share misses analyst expectations by at least 10%.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows management's plan for growth and production in 2026.
Supportive ifQ3 production reported at or above 34,000 Boe per day.
Worry ifQ3 production reported below 34,000 Boe per day.
Why it matters: Keeping expenses low helps make more money and meets management's cost goals.
Supportive ifQ3 expenses were below $27 million.
Worry ifQ3 expenses were above $27 million.
Why it matters: Staying within this range shows effective capital management and supports growth plans.
Watch forTotal capital spending is between $345 million and $385 million for 2026.
Also watch forTotal capital spending is outside the $345 million to $385 million range.