Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Grove Collaborative Holdings (GROV)
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.05-5.41%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GROV yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA reaches breakeven or positive low single digit millions | Grove aims to reach adjusted EBITDA breakeven in 2026. | Improving | Adjusted EBITDA remains negative or below breakeven in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Adjusted EBITDA was positive $0.5 million, or 1.3% margin, compared to negative $0.9 million, or (2.1%) margin, in the prior-year period.” “This marks the third consecutive quarter of positive Adjusted EBITDA and reflects continued operating discipline as the Company invests in the customer experience.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making business with a potential recovery thesis, not an established durable compounder. The long-term thesis remains on watch: adjusted EBITDA has been positive for two quarters, but recent performance is weak relative to its industry cohort.
The evidence labels GROV cheap versus peers, but also shows a positive premium versus peers, so the valuation picture is mixed and model confidence is low. The expectations gap is negative, which points to a gap between expectations and the underlying evidence; the snapshot does not explain its size or direction in plain terms. Fragility is rated low, with no fragility gates triggered.
Near term, recent results show slight sequential revenue growth and two consecutive quarters of positive adjusted EBITDA, while year-over-year revenue declines suggest growth remains limited. Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance, and its execution score recently improved, but the business is still loss-making overall and the risk rating is high. A guidance cut would be a meaningful setback; weaker jobs data could also weigh on cyclical consumer businesses.
Over the next several quarters, the thesis depends on sustaining adjusted EBITDA breakeven or better and turning partnerships into substantive revenue growth. Reaffirmed guidance and continued sequential improvement would support that case, while a guidance cut or continued year-over-year revenue declines would weaken it. Strong earnings and higher guidance from sector peers could provide a favorable backdrop, though that would not resolve GROV’s own execution risks.
For the 1 to 3 year view, GROV has early signs of cost and earnings progress, but its weak revenue record, high risk, and uncertain valuation evidence leave the thesis unproven. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Full-year 2026 revenue at least $142.5 million | A primary condition in Grove Collaborative Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is >=142.5 USD millions. | Intact | Full-year revenue falls below $142.5 million in 2026 | Revenue: $36.569M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=142.5 USD millions. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202636,569,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “● The Company continues to expect full-year net revenue of approximately $142.5 million to $152.5 million, and Adjusted EBITDA of breakeven to positive low single digit millions ● The Company continues to expect sequential net revenue improvement in each of the remaining quarters of 2026.” “● The Company continues to expect full-year net revenue of approximately $142.5 million to $152.5 million, and Adjusted EBITDA of breakeven to positive low single digit millions ● The Company continues to expect sequential net revenue improvement in each of the remaining quarters of 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Strategic partnerships drive revenue growth | The company focuses on strategic partnerships to grow. | Intact | No meaningful revenue growth from partnerships by end 2026 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.11 → $-0.07 · observed estimates
$0.16B → $0.16B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.11 | $160,737,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.11 | $160,737,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.11 | $160,737,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.11 | $160,737,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.11 | $160,737,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.11 | $160,737,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.11 | $160,737,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.11 | $160,737,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.11 | $160,736,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.11 | $160,736,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.11 | $160,737,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.11 | $160,737,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.11 | $160,737,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.11 | $160,737,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.11 | $160,736,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.11 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.07 | $160,737,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.07 | $160,737,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.07 | $160,737,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.07 | $160,737,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.11 | $160,736,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.11 | $160,736,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.11 | $160,736,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.11 | $160,736,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.11 | $160,736,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.11 | $160,736,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.07 | $160,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.07 | $160,736,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.07 | $160,736,513 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.07 | $160,736,513 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.07 | $160,736,513 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.07 | $160,736,513 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.07 | $160,736,513 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.