US Global Investors Inc (GROW)
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.98-8.87%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GROW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -26.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 36 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth drops below its median, it may signal broader challenges affecting GROW.
Watch forSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Also watch forSector revenue growth drops below its median.
Why it matters: Better EPS means the company is making more money. It shows management cares about growth.
Supportive ifDiluted EPS for Q3 2026 is over $0.21 after changes were made.
Worry ifDiluted EPS is below $0.21. This shows possible problems with making money.
Why it matters: The next earnings report will show how the company is doing financially.
Watch forPositive earnings results that show continued net income and revenue growth.
Also watch forNegative earnings results that show a decline in net income or revenue.
Why it matters: Steady revenue growth shows strong demand for the company's strategies. This helps future profits.
Supportive ifTotal operating revenues are more than $2.8 million for Q3 2026.
Worry ifTotal operating revenues are less than $2.8 million in the Q3 2026 report.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$121 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $333 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,218 loss on $10,000 · 32.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop below 15% could signal a slowdown in the financial sector's growth phase. This would raise concerns about the company's revenue trajectory.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below 15% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains at or above 15% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Growing net income shows good management and strong business. This helps build investor trust.
Supportive ifNet income reported above $2.7 million for Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet income falls below $2.7 million in the Q3 2026 earnings report.
Why it matters: Steady revenue growth shows strong demand and good management strategies.
Supportive ifTotal operating revenues reported to grow more than 31% YoY in the next quarter.
Worry ifTotal operating revenues reported to grow less than 31% YoY in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The EPS restatement may change how investors see the company's finances. Clear updates are important to keep trust.
Worry ifInvestor feelings improve if the stock price goes above $2.71 after the restatement.
Less concerning ifInvestor feelings worsen if the stock price drops below $2.55 after the restatement.
Why it matters: Management wants to improve EPS. A new restatement could mean there are reporting issues.
Worry ifEPS stays the same or goes up in future reports. This shows management is committed.
Less concerning ifIf there is another restatement or EPS goes down, it raises worries about controls.
Why it matters: AUM growth shows that investors trust the company. This can lead to more money.
Supportive ifAUM could rise above $1.6 billion next quarter, helped by gold and resources.
Worry ifIf AUM drops below $1.6 billion, it may show investors are losing interest.
Why it matters: EPS growth shows the company can increase value for shareholders and make more money.
Supportive ifDiluted EPS reported above $0.21 in the next earnings report.
Worry ifDiluted EPS reported below $0.21 in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Changes in AUM show how much investors trust the company and its strategies.
Watch forAverage AUM increases above $1.6 billion for Q3 2026.
Also watch forAverage AUM decreases below $1.6 billion in the Q3 2026 earnings report.
Why it matters: The filing will explain the new EPS figures. Investors need clear data to make choices.
Supportive ifThe company will file the updated Form 10-Q/A. It will have corrected EPS figures by September 30, 2026.
Worry ifThe company fails to file the amended Form 10-Q/A by the end of September 2026.
Why it matters: Stable or growing net income shows the company's financial strength. It also shows what management values.
Supportive ifNet income for Q4 2026 shows a profit or stabilizes above $2.7 million.
Worry ifNet income for Q4 2026 declines below the $2.7 million reported for Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Consistent revenue growth shows good business performance. It matches management's goals for growth.
Supportive ifRevenue growth for Q4 2026 exceeds 10% compared to Q3 2026.
Worry ifRevenue growth for Q4 2026 falls below 10% compared to Q3 2026.
Why it matters: News about the share buyback program can show management's trust in the company's worth.
Supportive ifManagement will announce a rise in the share buyback program amount or how often it happens.
Worry ifManagement will pause or cut back on the share buyback program.