Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.45-2.20%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.20 → 0.11 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Strengthen cost structure to improve operating income | Goodyear is working to improve its cost structure with rationalization plans. | Under Pressure | Segment operating income falls below $95 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
GT is a restructuring and operational-improvement story, not a proven durable compounder. Its multi-year thesis remains on watch: company quality and momentum measures have improved, but recent financial performance is weak and the business remains loss-making.
The valuation evidence points to GT being cheap versus peers, while the model also shows a small peer premium and has low confidence. The priced-in tag is justified, with no flagged fragility, but the evidence does not clearly show what specific expectations the market assumes.
Near term, the risk of missing remains elevated, and GT has missed across recent quarters. Management is pursuing cost reductions, including a facility closure and job cuts aimed at annual savings by 2028, while Goodyear Forward benefits have continued but declined over the reported quarters. Debt refinancing is on track, but management execution remains mixed overall.
The multi-year thesis hinges on whether cost and manufacturing changes deliver lasting savings and whether the company can sustain growth and market-share gains. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued strength or weakness among sector bellwethers could also affect the sector backdrop. Evidence on these forward scenarios is limited.
For the next 1 to 3 years, GT remains a high-risk improvement story with some progress on costs and market share, but weak results and uncertain execution leave the long-term thesis unresolved. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The Goodyear Forward program has delivered $107 million in benefits recently. |
| Under Pressure |
| Goodyear Forward benefits fall below $100 million per quarter |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve operating margin near $37.5 million by 2028 | The company aims for an operating margin near $37.5 million by 2028. | Improving | Operating margin falls below $35 million in FY28 | Operating margin: -1.2% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating margin between $35 million and $40 million by 2028. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026-1.2 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.65 → $0.11 · observed estimates
$18.01B → $18.14B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.65 | $18,010,891,620 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.65 | $18,010,858,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.64 | $18,010,858,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.64 | $18,010,858,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.65 | $18,010,891,620 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.65 | $18,010,891,620 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.65 | $18,010,891,620 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.65 | $18,010,891,620 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.64 | $18,010,858,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.64 | $18,010,858,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.65 | $18,010,891,620 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.65 | $18,010,891,620 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.64 | $18,010,858,283 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.64 | $17,992,113,840 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.63 | $18,186,503,068 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.63 | $18,186,503,068 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.61 | $17,975,133,840 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.63 | $18,186,503,068 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.55 | $17,946,581,260 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.63 | $18,186,503,068 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.63 | $18,186,503,068 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.63 | $18,186,503,068 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.63 | $18,186,503,068 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.63 | $18,186,503,068 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.63 | $18,186,503,068 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.63 | $18,186,503,068 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.45 | $18,257,537,965 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.40 | $18,259,201,277 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.40 | $18,259,201,277 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.40 | $18,259,201,277 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.40 | $18,259,201,277 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.40 | $18,259,201,277 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.40 | $18,259,201,277 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.40 | $18,259,201,277 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.40 | $18,259,201,277 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.40 | $18,288,568,157 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.40 | $18,288,568,157 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.40 | $18,288,568,157 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.40 | $18,288,568,157 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.40 | $18,288,568,157 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.40 | $18,288,568,157 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.40 | $18,288,568,157 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.28 | $18,344,135,220 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.28 | $18,344,135,220 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.28 | $18,344,135,220 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.28 | $18,344,135,220 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.28 | $18,344,135,220 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.28 | $18,344,135,220 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.28 | $18,344,135,220 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.28 | $18,344,135,220 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.28 | $18,344,135,220 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.28 | $18,344,135,220 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.28 | $18,344,135,220 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.28 | $18,344,135,220 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.28 | $18,344,135,220 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.28 | $18,344,135,220 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.28 | $18,344,135,220 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.28 | $18,344,135,220 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.28 | $18,344,135,220 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.25 | $18,344,135,220 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.25 | $18,344,135,220 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.25 | $18,344,135,220 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.25 | $18,344,135,220 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.25 | $18,344,135,220 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.25 | $18,344,135,220 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.25 | $18,344,135,220 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.25 | $18,344,135,220 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.25 | $18,344,135,220 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.25 | $18,344,135,220 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.25 | $18,344,135,220 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.20 | $18,337,060,619 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.20 | $18,337,060,619 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.20 | $18,337,060,619 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.20 | $18,337,060,619 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.20 | $18,337,060,619 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.20 | $18,337,060,619 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.20 | $18,337,060,619 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.20 | $18,337,060,619 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.20 | $18,337,060,619 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.20 | $18,337,060,619 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.20 | $18,337,060,619 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.11 | $18,337,060,619 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.10 | $18,334,260,619 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.07 | $18,285,260,619 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.07 | $18,285,260,619 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.07 | $18,285,260,619 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.07 | $18,285,260,619 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.07 | $18,285,260,619 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.14 | $18,177,087,663 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.14 | $18,177,087,663 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.14 | $18,177,087,663 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.14 | $18,177,087,663 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.14 | $18,177,087,663 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.14 | $18,177,087,663 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.14 | $18,177,087,663 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.14 | $18,177,087,663 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.11 | $18,144,904,330 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.11 | $18,144,904,330 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.11 | $18,144,904,330 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.11 | $18,144,966,497 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.11 | $18,144,966,497 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.11 | $18,144,966,497 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.11 | $18,144,966,497 | 4 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.