Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.25+2.29%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -43.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 45.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. A copy of the News Release issued by The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company on Wednesday, August 5, 2026, describing its results of operations for the second quarter of 2026, is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: The recent debt issuance aims to improve Goodyear's capital structure. Monitoring its effects will indicate financial health.
Supportive ifSuccessful refinancing lowers interest costs. It also helps cash flow.
Worry ifHigher debt or increased interest costs with no added benefits is a concern.
Why it matters: A drop below this level would show weak demand and hurt Goodyear's recovery efforts.
Worry ifQ1 2026 net sales reported below $3.7 billion.
Less concerning ifQ1 2026 net sales reported above $3.9 billion.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it shows problems with profits and costs.
Worry ifSegment operating income was below $95 million for Q1 2026.
Less concerning ifSegment operating income was above $95 million for Q1 2026.
Why it matters: The closure is expected to improve cost structure. Updates will show if savings are on track.
Supportive ifThe Fayetteville closure is expected to save $90 million by 2027.
Worry ifThere may be delays in closing. Savings from the Fayetteville facility could be lower.
Why it matters: Successful repayment will improve Goodyear's financial health and reduce interest costs. This is key for future stability.
Supportive ifConfirmation of repayment of the 4.875% and 7.625% notes by March 2027.
Worry ifFailure to repay the 4.875% and 7.625% notes by March 2027.
Why it matters: A stable CFO can boost investor trust and help with strategy.
Supportive ifA permanent CFO is appointed before the end of Q3.
Worry ifThe search for a permanent CFO extends beyond Q3 without an appointment.
Why it matters: A smaller cash flow deficit would indicate better financial health. This could reassure investors.
Supportive ifCash from operations reported better than -$600M, improving from -$718M in Q1 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations is worse than -$600M. This shows ongoing financial issues.
Why it matters: The CFO change may affect Goodyear's cost cuts. Investors will watch for steady financial leadership.
Worry ifManagement reports clear cost cuts and savings in the next quarters.
Less concerning ifManagement says there are still problems with costs and no improvements have been reported.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows progress in cutting costs. This could help investors feel good.
Supportive ifOperating income is above -$100M. This shows a recovery from -$180M in Q1 2026.
Worry ifOperating income is still below -$100M. This shows ongoing cost problems.
Why it matters: A significant revenue drop would confirm ongoing challenges in sustaining growth. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $3.49B, which is a 10% decline from $3.88B in Q1 2026.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue is over $3.49B. This shows better revenue stability.
Why it matters: A permanent CFO could make leadership stable. This may boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a permanent CFO by the end of 2026.
Worry ifNo announcement of a permanent CFO by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: A drop below this level shows ongoing sales problems due to weak consumer demand.
Worry ifNet sales reported below $3.9 billion for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifNet sales reported above $3.9 billion for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A bigger drop means worse market conditions. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifNet sales in Q3 decline year over year worse than 4.8%.
Less concerning ifNet sales stabilize or grow year over year.
Why it matters: CFO Christina Zamarro is leaving Goodyear. This may change the company's financial path. Investors will watch how the new interim CFO handles current issues.
Worry ifScott Deakin's leadership brings a clear financial plan. This helps improve operating income in Q3.
Less concerning ifIf operating income keeps falling, it may show unclear plans under the interim CFO.
Why it matters: Refinancing debt shows financial stability. It also shows management's care in spending money. This is key for Goodyear's future plans.
Supportive ifGoodyear pays back the 2027 notes. Credit metrics improve after issuing new senior notes.
Worry ifFailure to repay the 2027 notes or worsening credit metrics after the new debt issuance.
Why it matters: An increase means consumer demand is getting better. Sales are improving too.
Supportive ifTire unit volumes in the Americas rose above 15.3 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifTire unit volumes in the Americas stayed below 15.3 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A larger decline would signal ongoing weakness in demand and market share issues.
Worry ifQ3 tire unit volume down more than 4% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 tire unit volume holds steady or grows year over year.
Why it matters: Higher benefits show good cost management. This helps support growth plans.
Supportive ifGoodyear Forward benefits exceed $100 million in Q3.
Worry ifGoodyear Forward benefits fall below $95 million in Q3.
Why it matters: A bigger loss shows worse financial health and more operational problems.
Worry ifNet loss in Q3 exceeds $204 million.
Less concerning ifNet loss in Q3 is less than or equal to $204 million.
Why it matters: Finishing on time could save costs and improve profit margins.
Supportive ifThe Fayetteville facility will close by the end of 2027.
Worry ifThe Fayetteville facility will close after the end of 2027.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$214 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $432 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,706 loss on $10,000 · 47.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.