Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$-0.15 → $-0.15 · observed estimates
Good Times Restaurants Inc (GTIM)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.27-3.05%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GTIM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Net income improvement for both restaurant brands | Good Times Restaurants is improving profits, with net income rising from -$3,000 to $149,000 recently. | Intact | net income falls below $0 in any quarter through 2026-Q2 | Net income: $1.907M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $149,000 net income in 2026-Q2. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 20261,907,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$-0.15 → $-0.15 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 22, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
GTIM is a small restaurant business with a profitability-improvement thesis, rather than a proven, steady earnings compounder. The thesis is intact, with recent financial performance strong, but the company remains loss-making on the earnings-quality measure and risk is elevated.
The evidence describes GTIM as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting the market’s assumptions may be cautious. Pricing is tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to an unusually fragile setup despite the valuation discount.
Near term, profitability progress has support from higher reported income and lower restaurant and administrative costs. Sales are mixed: Good Times same-store sales turned positive, while Bad Daddy’s declined, and the next earnings release carries elevated miss risk given the company’s size and erratic recent surprises.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on continued profitability gains and whether Bad Daddy’s sales stabilize while Good Times maintains progress. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued strength from restaurant-sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken it.
For the 1-to-3-year view, GTIM’s improving operations keep the long-term thesis intact, but mixed brand sales, loss-making earnings quality, and near-term execution risk remain important constraints. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Notwithstanding the top line performance at Bad Daddy’s, we expect total overall company profitability in the fourth quarter to improve on a year-over-year basis from fiscal 2025 due to improved cost management and the improved sales performance at our Good Times brand.”” “We have reduced our debt position and improved liquidity which is intended to provide greater financial flexibility and optionality to create value for shareholders.”” Operating income was $0.172 million in 2026-Q2.
Revenue growth for both restaurant brands | A primary condition in Good Times Restaurants Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $33.2M revenue in 2026-Q2. | Intact | revenue falls below $32.7M in any quarter through 2026-Q2 | Revenue: $35.167M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $33.2M revenue in 2026-Q2. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 202635,167,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain valuation discount to peers | A supporting condition in Good Times Restaurants Inc's published investment case. The stated target is PE below 15 through next 12 months. | Intact | PE rises above 20 without profit growth | P/E (TTM): 6.22x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 20266.2174 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.11B → $0.11B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.15 | $110,451,500 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Monthly analyst history is unavailable.
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.