Good Times Restaurants Inc (GTIM)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.31+0.77%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GTIM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -61.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -10.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 51.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
Why it matters: Good Times sales rose in Q3, and management said the trend continued into Q4. Another strong quarter would support the sales recovery.
Supportive ifQ4 Good Times same-store sales rise year over year, above 0%.
Worry ifQ4 Good Times same-store sales fall to 0% or below year over year.
Why it matters: Lower costs helped lift operating income year to date. The next report will show whether that progress continues as revenue falls.
Watch forThe December 22 report shows restaurant and general costs so far this year are below the same period last year.
Also watch forThe December 22 report shows either cost measure above the same period last year.
Why it matters: Q3 revenue fell 5.0% from a year earlier. A further drop would show that cost cuts have not stopped the sales decline.
Worry ifQ4 total revenue falls more than 5.0% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ4 total revenue decline is less than 5.0%, or revenue grows year over year.
Why it matters: Management said Q4 profit would improve year over year. The result will test whether lower costs and Good Times sales can offset Bad Daddy's weak sales.
Supportive ifQ4 net income is higher than fiscal 2025 Q4 net income.
Worry ifQ4 net income is flat or lower than fiscal 2025 Q4.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$73 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $311 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,147 loss on $10,000 · 21.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Bad Daddy's sales fell 2.3% in Q3. Management is testing value offers to bring back traffic.
Supportive ifBad Daddy's same-store sales reach 0% or higher year over year in Q4.
Worry ifBad Daddy's same-store sales fall further below Q3's 2.3% decline.