Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
GXO Logistics (GXO)
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$55.18-3.13%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.54 → 3.54 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GXO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA at least $935 million | The company raised full-year 2026 EPS guidance to $2.90 to $3.20 and EBITDA guidance to $935 million to $975 million. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $935 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a medium confidence level. The current thesis state indicates that while there are some positive signs, the overall performance has not yet aligned with industry peers.
The valuation suggests that GXO is currently considered expensive compared to its peers. The market seems to have a justified view, but there is an expectations gap that indicates some skepticism about future performance.
Management is focused on sharpening their commercial strategy, which has shown some positive momentum with revenue growth. However, the execution of their initiatives, particularly in AI and automation, remains mixed, and the company is still loss-making.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like UPS and FDX, as their results could significantly impact GXO's trajectory. Additionally, the ability of management to deliver on their strategic priorities will be crucial.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, GXO's performance will depend on external sector conditions and internal execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in GXO Logistics's published investment case. The stated target is >=2.90 USD per share. |
| Broken |
| Adjusted EPS falls below $2.90 in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Free cash flow yield at least 0.3% | Profit margins and cash flow are improving, supported by a stable management team. | Intact | Free cash flow yield falls below 0.3% in FY26 | Free cash flow yield: 2.85% As of 2026-11-05; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 5, 20262.85 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Execution progress score above 60% | A supporting condition in GXO Logistics's published investment case. The stated target is >=60%. | Improving | Execution progress score falls below 60% | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of at least 6% YoY | A primary condition in GXO Logistics's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 6% next year | Revenue growth: 5.74% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20265.743741 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Patrick Kelleher, chief executive officer of GXO, said, “The new strategy we put in motion over the past year is delivering results: In the third quarter, we generated our fastest organic growth in more than three years, increased new business wins by more than 30% for the second consecutive quarter, and expanded our sales pipeline to a record level.” “2026 Guidance 2 The Company reaffirmed its guidance for the full year 2026 as follows: • Organic revenue growth 1 of 4% to 5%; • Adjusted EBITDA 1 of $945 million to $965 million; • Adjusted diluted EPS 1 of $2.95 to $3.15; and • Free cash flow conversion 1 of 30% to 40%.” Revenue was $3.590 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.53 → $3.54 · observed estimates
$14.80B → $14.62B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.53 | $14,797,259,471 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.53 | $14,797,240,730 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.53 | $14,797,240,730 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.53 | $14,797,259,471 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.53 | $14,797,240,730 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.53 | $14,797,259,471 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.53 | $14,797,259,471 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.53 | $14,797,240,730 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.53 | $14,797,259,471 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.53 | $14,797,240,730 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.53 | $14,797,240,730 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.53 | $14,797,240,730 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.53 | $14,797,259,471 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.53 | $14,797,240,730 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.52 | $14,762,933,816 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.52 | $14,747,260,490 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.52 | $14,747,260,490 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.52 | $14,747,260,490 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.54 | $14,707,133,030 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.54 | $14,707,133,030 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.52 | $14,762,933,816 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.52 | $14,762,933,816 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.52 | $14,762,933,816 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.52 | $14,762,933,816 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.52 | $14,762,933,816 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.52 | $14,762,933,816 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.54 | $14,707,173,060 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.54 | $14,707,106,394 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.54 | $14,707,106,394 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.54 | $14,707,090,660 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.54 | $14,707,579,700 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.54 | $14,705,656,367 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.54 | $14,684,276,367 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.54 | $14,684,276,367 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.54 | $14,684,276,367 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.54 | $14,684,276,367 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.54 | $14,684,276,367 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.54 | $14,684,276,367 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.54 | $14,669,977,320 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.54 | $14,621,163,987 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.54 | $14,621,163,987 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.54 | $14,621,163,987 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.54 | $14,621,163,987 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.54 | $14,621,163,987 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.54 | $14,621,163,987 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.54 | $14,621,163,987 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.54 | $14,621,163,987 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.54 | $14,621,163,987 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.54 | $14,621,163,987 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.54 | $14,621,163,987 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.54 | $14,621,163,987 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.54 | $14,621,163,987 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.54 | $14,621,163,987 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.54 | $14,621,163,987 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.54 | $14,621,163,987 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.54 | $14,621,163,987 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.54 | $14,621,163,987 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.54 | $14,621,163,987 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.54 | $14,621,162,466 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-11-05 | $3.54 | $14,621,162,466 | 11 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 17 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 3 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.