GXO Logistics (GXO)
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$48.32+2.42%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GXO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -30.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 5.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 36.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GXO — Principal Accounting Officer transition
Dated 2026-08-20
Chief Accounting Officer — Christina Carvalho: The filing discloses the appointment of an external candidate as Chief Accounting Officer, replacing an interim officer, which is a standard executive succession event rather than a sudden departure.
Why it matters: If the sector grows again, it could help GXO. This means a stronger market.
Watch forSector growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Also watch forSector growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A growing pipeline means strong future revenue. It shows confidence in GXO's growth.
Supportive ifSales pipeline is above $2.7 billion.
Worry ifSales pipeline is below $2.5 billion.
Why it matters: Reaching $40 million in cash from operations would show progress in improving cash flow. This is important for funding growth.
Supportive ifCash from operations reaches $40 million in Q2.
Worry ifCash from operations falls below $30 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Progress in AI and automation can improve how well a company runs. This can help it compete better.
Watch forManagement says the GXO IQ platform is scaling well with clear benefits.
Also watch forNo updates or setbacks in the deployment of the GXO IQ platform.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$153 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $378 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,083 loss on $10,000 · 30.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Weak cash flow conversion may show problems in operations. This could affect financial stability.
Worry ifFree cash flow conversion reported below 30% for Q3.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow conversion reported above 40% for Q3.
Why it matters: New business wins in key sectors show GXO's growth momentum. This is crucial for future revenue.
Supportive ifNew business wins were above $227 million in key sectors.
Worry ifNew business wins were below $227 million in key sectors.
Why it matters: This growth rate signals continued strength in GXO's commercial strategy and demand in key sectors.
Supportive ifQ2 organic revenue growth meets or exceeds 4.5%.
Worry ifQ2 organic revenue growth falls below 4%.
Why it matters: Details shared at this event may provide insights into long-term strategy and growth plans. It can influence investor confidence.
Watch forInvestor Day is announced. It will share details on strategy and finances.
Also watch forNo news is given about Investor Day after Q3 earnings.
Why it matters: An increase shows confidence in making money and strong operations.
Supportive ifEBITDA guidance is above $975 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance is at or below $975 million.
Why it matters: Strong wins in this sector would confirm growth in high-margin areas.
Supportive ifNew business wins in aerospace & defense exceed $100 million.
Worry ifNew business wins in aerospace & defense fall below $50 million.
Why it matters: Exceeding 10% growth would show GXO is on track with its revenue goals. It would signal strong demand and effective strategy.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows good cost control and efficiency. This is important for GXO's profits.
Supportive ifOperating income is over $50 million in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income is under $30 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA is a key measure of profitability. A miss could signal deeper issues.
Worry ifQ2 adjusted EBITDA was less than $935 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 adjusted EBITDA was $935 million or more.
Why it matters: This would show a slowdown in the company's growth. It could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 organic revenue growth was below 4%.
Less concerning ifQ3 organic revenue growth reported at 4% or higher.
Why it matters: Strong new business wins show ongoing growth. This means more chances for success.
Supportive ifNew business wins reported above $500 million for Q3.
Worry ifNew business wins reported below $300 million for Q3.