GXO Logistics (GXO)
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$55.18-3.13%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GXO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -15.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GXO — Principal Accounting Officer transition
Dated 2026-08-20
Chief Accounting Officer — Christina Carvalho: The filing discloses the appointment of an external candidate as Chief Accounting Officer, replacing an interim officer, which is a standard executive succession event rather than a sudden departure.
Why it matters: Management plans to share its long-term strategy and financial goals. Clear targets can show how it plans to build on current growth.
Supportive ifAt Investor Day, GXO sets clear long-term goals for growth, profit, or cash flow above its 2026 guidance.
Worry ifGXO gives no clear long-term goals, or sets goals below its 2026 guidance for growth, profit, or cash flow.
Why it matters: GXO says it has moved its AI platform into wider use, but has not shared results. Measured gains would show whether it helps run sites better.
Supportive ifGXO reports a measured gain from GXO IQ, such as lower labor cost per order or more orders handled per worker.
Worry ifGXO reports no measured gain from GXO IQ, or says its rollout has slowed or stopped.
Why it matters: GXO narrowed its 2026 EBITDA range to $945 million to $965 million. Q3 results can show whether it can meet that goal.
Supportive ifGXO reports Q3 results and keeps adjusted EBITDA guidance at $945 million to $965 million, or raises it.
Worry ifGXO cuts adjusted EBITDA guidance below $945 million, or reports results that it says put the range at risk.
Why it matters: GXO has kept its full-year organic growth goal at 4% to 5%. Q3 results test whether sales are on pace.
Supportive ifOn November 3, GXO reports Q3 organic revenue growth of at least 4% year over year and keeps its 4% to 5% full-year goal.
Worry ifQ3 organic revenue growth is below 4%, or GXO cuts its full-year organic growth goal below 4%.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$129 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $352 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,266 loss on $10,000 · 32.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: GXO used $31 million of free cash in Q1 and made $12 million in Q2. Full-year conversion is guided at 30% to 40%.
Supportive ifGXO reports positive free cash flow in Q3 and keeps its 30% to 40% full-year conversion goal.
Worry ifGXO reports negative free cash flow in Q3 and cuts its full-year conversion goal below 30%.