Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
Hain Celestial Group, Inc. (The) (HAIN)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.14-9.59%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HAIN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow reaches at least $40 million in FY25 | Hain Celestial aims to improve with a $40M free cash flow target for FY25. | Broken | Free cash flow falls below $20 million in FY25 | Free cash flow: $6.834M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=40 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 14, 20266,834,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk turnaround thesis, not a proven durable compounder. The multi-year view is in a watch state: management is making progress on cash and parts of the business, while overall results remain weak and management execution has been volatile.
HAIN is described as cheap versus peers, but the valuation model has low confidence and earnings are loss-making, so the low relative valuation does not settle the case. The priced-in tag is justified, with low fragility, but the negative expectations gap and recent weak performance point to limited support from current fundamentals.
Near term, earnings-miss risk is elevated, and the company has a run of consecutive misses; a further guidance cut would add pressure to an already weak operating picture. Over the multi-year view, lower debt and improving North America organic sales are constructive, but adjusted EBITDA declined between the two reported quarters despite a stronger regional margin.
The thesis hinges on whether North America organic sales can keep improving and whether cost discipline turns into stronger overall profitability and cash generation. A guidance cut or further economic weakness would be adverse, while stronger results and guidance from sector peers could support the broader Consumer Staples backdrop.
The 1-to-3-year view remains uncertain: balance-sheet progress offers some support, but weak results, volatile execution, and elevated near-term miss risk leave the turnaround unproven. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company plans to raise gross margin to 21.5% next year. |
| Improving |
| Gross margin falls below 18% in FY25 |
Gross margin: 22.5% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~21.5%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 14, 202622.504742 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Comply with Nasdaq minimum bid price to avoid delisting | A primary condition in Hain Celestial Group, Inc. (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is Bid price above Nasdaq minimum by end 2026. | Under Pressure | Failure to meet Nasdaq minimum bid price by end 2026 | Nasdaq minimum bid price not met (qualitative) Nasdaq delisting notice received; stock surged on divestiture news but compliance status remains unresolved. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete divestiture of North American Snacks business | It is working on divesting its North American Snacks business. | Improving | Divestiture not completed by end of 2026 | SPA signed Sep 2026 vs mid-2026 target Hain signed a $323M SPA with Aurelius in September 2026 to sell international assets, advancing the divestiture strategy. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.17 → $0.08 · observed estimates
$1.15B → $1.14B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.17 | $1,148,391,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.08 | $1,138,891,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.08 | $1,138,891,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.08 | $1,138,891,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.08 | $1,138,891,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.08 | $1,138,891,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.08 | $1,138,891,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.08 | $1,138,891,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.08 | $1,138,891,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.08 | $1,138,891,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.08 | $1,138,891,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.08 | $1,138,891,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.08 | $1,138,891,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.08 | $1,138,891,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.08 | $1,138,891,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.08 | $1,138,891,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.08 | $1,138,891,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.08 | $1,138,891,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.08 | $1,138,891,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.08 | $1,138,891,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.08 | $1,138,891,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.08 | $1,138,891,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.08 | $1,138,891,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.08 | $1,138,891,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.08 | $1,138,891,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.08 | $1,138,891,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.08 | $1,138,891,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.08 | $1,138,891,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.08 | $1,138,891,500 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.