Hasbro (HAS)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$92.53-0.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HAS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 5.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -2.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers
HAS — CEO transition
Dated 2026-07-27
President of Wizards of the Coast — John Hight: Mr. Hight is transitioning to an Advisor role while continuing to assist with the onboarding of a successor.
Why it matters: If Magic: The Gathering revenue stays above $500 million, it signals ongoing strength in the gaming segment.
Supportive ifMagic: The Gathering revenue exceeds $500 million in Q3.
Worry ifMagic: The Gathering revenue falls below $450 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Hasbro can meet its revenue and margin targets for 2026. This is key for investor confidence.
Watch forQ2 earnings report shows revenue growth of 3-5% and adjusted operating margin of 24-25%.
Also watch forThe Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth under 3%. It also shows an adjusted operating margin below 24%.
Why it matters: News on the cyber incident will show its financial effects and recovery time.
Watch forHasbro says the issue from unauthorized access is fully resolved with no more costs.
Also watch forHasbro reports more costs or delays due to the unauthorized access.
Why it matters: This growth shows the company can grow even with market problems.
Supportive ifTotal revenue growth reported at 6% or higher in Q3.
Worry ifTotal revenue growth reported below 5% in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$114 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $257 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,790 loss on $10,000 · 27.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Strong growth in Magic: The Gathering signals ongoing success in the gaming segment. It supports overall revenue growth.
Supportive ifMagic: The Gathering revenue growth exceeds 30% year over year.
Worry ifMagic: The Gathering revenue growth falls below 20% year over year.
Why it matters: A big revenue drop in Q2 could mean deeper operational problems.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue reported down more than 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 revenue reported stable or growing year over year.
Why it matters: Operating margin is important for making money. If it falls below 24%, costs may be too high.
Worry ifThe operating margin is under 24%.
Less concerning ifOperating margin is 24% or higher.
Why it matters: Reaching the EBITDA target shows financial health and growth potential.
Watch forAdjusted EBITDA reaches $1.45 billion or higher in Q2.
Also watch forAdjusted EBITDA falls below $1.40 billion in Q2.
Why it matters: The revenue growth guidance shows strong business momentum. It shows management's confidence in growth.
Supportive ifManagement expects Q3 revenue to grow by 5-7% in constant currency.
Worry ifManagement revises Q3 revenue growth guidance down from 5-7%.
Why it matters: Costs from the network incident may hurt profits. Monitoring this helps check stability.
Worry ifExtra costs from the unauthorized access are more than $15 million.
Less concerning ifCosts from the unauthorized access are still under $10 million.
Why it matters: EBITDA is a key measure of financial health. Falling below $1.40 billion signals weakness.
Worry ifEBITDA is below $1.40 billion.
Less concerning ifEBITDA is $1.40 billion or higher.
Why it matters: Sales growth in MAGIC: THE GATHERING drives overall revenue. Any slowdown could signal broader issues.
Worry ifMAGIC: THE GATHERING sales growth drops below 20% year over year.
Less concerning ifMAGIC: THE GATHERING sales growth remains above 30% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong growth in Wizards of the Coast is key to Hasbro's overall revenue. If growth stays high, it supports management's guidance.
Supportive ifWizards of the Coast revenue growth exceeds 25% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifWizards of the Coast revenue growth drops below 20% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: A margin above 25% would confirm Hasbro's ability to manage costs while growing. It shows operational strength.
Supportive ifThe adjusted operating margin is more than 25% in Q3.
Worry ifThe adjusted operating margin is less than 24% in Q3.
Why it matters: Costs from the network breach could impact future earnings. Monitoring these updates helps assess financial health.
Worry ifCompany reports total costs from the network breach below $20 million.
Less concerning ifCompany reports total costs from the network breach above $30 million.
Why it matters: Consumer Products growth is crucial for overall revenue. Strong growth indicates brand strength and market demand.
Supportive ifConsumer Products revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifConsumer Products revenue growth falls below 2% year over year in Q3.