Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW)
NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$16.37-3.59%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.97 → 0.96 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HAYW yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS guidance raised to $0.85 for 2026 | The company raised its EPS guidance to $0.85 for 2026, showing stable management execution. | Intact | EPS guidance falls below $0.84 for FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an industrial growth business whose thesis depends on profitable growth and better operating execution, rather than a clear turnaround. The long-term thesis weakened this week as recent financial performance slipped relative to its industry, even though the latest earnings event was positive.
HAYW is described as cheap versus peers, while the valuation signal says expectations are modestly below the model’s view; model confidence is medium. The priced-in assessment calls this a justified setup, with low fragility, but that does not remove the risk from fragile earnings quality.
In the near term, Q3 sales rose 6% year over year, gross margin increased 10 basis points to 47.9%, and operating income rose 22%; management also raised full-year sales growth guidance to about 5% to 6%. Execution is showing progress, but SmartPad adoption lacks a clear milestone, inflation slightly exceeded pricing benefits at the segment level, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative.
The multi-year view hinges on delivering the raised full-year growth guidance while sustaining profitable growth and margin execution. Near-term sector signals also matter: continued earnings strength from ETN, VRT, and BE would support the industrial backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
HAYW has recent evidence of operating progress, but its long-term thesis is weaker than it was before as relative performance has faded and earnings quality remains fragile. The next guidance update and execution on growth, margins, and technology adoption are key. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit margins improve with gross profit rising from $105.3M to $118.7M and operating income increasing from $33.5M to $42.5M. |
| Broken |
| gross profit margin declines below prior year levels in FY26 |
Gross margin: 47.92% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Maintain or improve gross profit margin in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 202647.917612 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Enhance operating income through cost management | Profit margins improve with gross profit rising from $105.3M to $118.7M and operating income increasing from $33.5M to $42.5M. | Under Pressure | operating income falls below prior year levels in FY26 | Operating income: $50.203M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Maintain or improve operating income in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 202650,203,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of approximately 5% for Fiscal Year 2026 | A primary condition in Hayward Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY revenue growth in FY26. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 5% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 6.47% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=5% YoY revenue growth in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 20266.465687 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.94 → $0.96 · observed estimates
$1.24B → $1.24B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.94 | $1,238,386,809 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.94 | $1,239,538,590 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.94 | $1,239,538,590 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.94 | $1,239,538,590 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.94 | $1,238,386,809 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.94 | $1,238,386,809 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.95 | $1,239,427,480 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.97 | $1,246,033,374 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.97 | $1,246,033,374 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.97 | $1,247,197,340 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.97 | $1,247,197,340 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.97 | $1,247,197,340 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.97 | $1,247,197,340 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.97 | $1,247,197,340 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.97 | $1,246,811,152 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.97 | $1,247,197,340 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.97 | $1,247,197,340 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.97 | $1,247,197,340 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.97 | $1,246,811,152 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.97 | $1,246,811,152 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.97 | $1,246,811,152 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.97 | $1,246,811,152 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.97 | $1,246,811,152 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.97 | $1,246,811,152 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.97 | $1,246,811,152 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.97 | $1,246,811,152 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.97 | $1,247,366,708 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.97 | $1,247,366,708 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.97 | $1,247,366,708 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.97 | $1,247,366,708 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.97 | $1,247,366,708 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.97 | $1,247,344,486 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.97 | $1,247,344,486 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.97 | $1,247,344,486 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.97 | $1,247,344,486 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.97 | $1,247,344,486 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.97 | $1,247,344,486 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.97 | $1,247,344,486 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.97 | $1,247,344,486 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.97 | $1,247,344,486 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.97 | $1,247,344,486 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.97 | $1,247,344,486 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.97 | $1,247,344,486 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.97 | $1,247,344,486 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.97 | $1,247,344,486 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.97 | $1,247,344,486 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.97 | $1,247,344,486 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.97 | $1,247,343,901 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.97 | $1,247,343,901 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.97 | $1,247,343,901 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.97 | $1,247,343,901 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.97 | $1,247,343,901 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.97 | $1,247,343,901 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.97 | $1,247,343,901 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.97 | $1,247,343,901 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.97 | $1,247,343,901 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.97 | $1,247,343,901 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.97 | $1,247,343,901 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.97 | $1,247,343,901 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.97 | $1,247,343,901 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.97 | $1,247,343,901 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.97 | $1,247,343,901 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.97 | $1,247,343,901 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.97 | $1,247,343,901 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.97 | $1,247,343,901 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.97 | $1,247,343,901 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.97 | $1,247,343,901 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.97 | $1,247,343,901 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.97 | $1,247,343,901 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.97 | $1,247,343,901 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.97 | $1,247,343,901 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.97 | $1,247,343,901 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.97 | $1,247,343,901 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.97 | $1,247,343,901 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.97 | $1,247,232,790 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.97 | $1,247,232,790 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.95 | $1,237,966,346 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.95 | $1,237,966,346 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.95 | $1,237,966,346 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.95 | $1,237,966,346 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.95 | $1,237,926,930 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.95 | $1,237,926,930 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.95 | $1,237,926,930 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.95 | $1,237,926,930 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.95 | $1,237,926,930 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.95 | $1,237,926,930 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.95 | $1,237,926,930 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.95 | $1,237,926,930 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.95 | $1,237,926,930 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.95 | $1,237,926,930 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.95 | $1,237,926,930 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.95 | $1,236,838,041 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.95 | $1,236,838,041 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.95 | $1,236,838,041 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.95 | $1,236,838,041 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.95 | $1,236,838,041 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.96 | $1,242,934,411 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.96 | $1,244,679,439 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.96 | $1,244,679,439 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.96 | $1,244,679,439 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.96 | $1,244,679,439 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.96 | $1,244,679,439 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.96 | $1,244,679,439 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.96 | $1,244,679,439 | 6 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.