Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW)
NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.92+1.61%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HAYW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -26.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HAYW — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-23
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Amended and Restated First Lien Credit Agreement On June 23, 2026, Hayward Industries, Inc. (the “US Borrower”), a New Jersey corporation and a wholly owned subsidiary of Hayward Holdings, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), Hayward Pool Products Canada, Inc. / Produits de Piscines Hayward Canada, Inc., a Canadian federal corporation and a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company (the “Canadian Borrower” and, together with the US Borrower, t…
Why it matters: If leverage goes above 1.5x, it may mean more financial risk.
Worry ifNet leverage reported above 1.5x in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet leverage reported at or below 1.5x in Q3.
Why it matters: A better gross profit margin shows good cost management. It also shows effective pricing strategies. This helps management reach their goal of better margins.
Supportive ifGross profit margin increases above 48.7% in Q3.
Worry ifGross profit margin decreases below 48.7% in Q3.
Why it matters: If the sector's revenue growth picks up, it could benefit Hayward. This is important for its recovery.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth exceeds 8% in the next quarter.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 4% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Growth over 6% shows strong efficiency. It also shows good cost control. This matches management's goal to improve operating income.
Supportive ifQ3 operating income growth is over 6% compared to last year.
Worry ifQ3 operating income growth is under 6% compared to last year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$130 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $326 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,404 loss on $10,000 · 24.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growth over 5% shows strong demand. It also shows good pricing strategies. This confirms that management focuses on growing revenue.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales growth above 5% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth falls below 5% year-over-year.
Why it matters: If adjusted diluted EPS is below $0.84, it may mean lower profits than expected. This can worry investors about future earnings.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted EPS was below $0.84.
Less concerning ifAdjusted diluted EPS was at or above $0.84.
Why it matters: If it drops below 48%, rising costs may hurt profits.
Worry ifGross profit margin reported below 48% for Q3.
Less concerning ifGross profit margin reported at or above 48% for Q3.
Why it matters: More spending on RD&E shows a focus on innovation and product development.
Supportive ifRD&E spending increases by more than 25% year-over-year in Q3.
Worry ifRD&E spending increases by less than 25% year-over-year in Q3.
Why it matters: A sharp rise in SG&A could indicate inefficiencies or increased costs that may hurt margins. This would affect overall profitability.
Worry ifSG&A expenses increase by more than 10% in Q3.
Less concerning ifSG&A expenses increase by 10% or less in Q3.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows financial health. A slowdown may mean operational issues.
Worry ifOperating income growth below 20% year over year.
Less concerning ifOperating income growth meets or exceeds 20% year over year.