Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW)
NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$16.37-3.59%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HAYW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 5.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 16 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HAYW — CFO transition
Dated 2026-10-02
Chief Accounting Officer — Jared Arrowood: The filing discloses the internal promotion of Jared Arrowood to Chief Accounting Officer, a key financial role, while the CFO retains their position.
Why it matters: Management named technology use as a growth driver, but gave no adoption figure. More SmartPad sales would show progress beyond product spending.
Supportive ifA quarterly report shows a SmartPad adoption or sales measure rising from the prior period.
Worry ifA quarterly report shows a SmartPad adoption or sales measure staying flat or falling from the prior period.
Why it matters: Cash from operations fell over the first nine months, in part due to collection and inventory timing. A recovery would support the cash flow story management cited.
Watch forFY2026 operating cash flow is at least as high as FY2025.
Also watch forFY2026 operating cash flow is lower than FY2025.
Why it matters: Hayward raised its adjusted EPS range after Q3 earnings growth. Results in that range would support its stronger profit outlook.
Supportive ifFY2026 adjusted diluted EPS is $0.86 to $0.88.
Worry ifFY2026 adjusted diluted EPS is below $0.86.
Why it matters: Hayward raised its sales growth range after Q3 sales grew 6%. Meeting the new range would confirm that growth held through year-end.
Supportive ifFY2026 net sales growth is 5% to 6% over FY2025.
Worry ifFY2026 net sales growth is below 5% over FY2025.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$130 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $333 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,443 loss on $10,000 · 34.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: E&RW sales fell in both Q2 and Q3, with management citing lower volume and Middle East conflict. Another decline would show the strain continues.
Worry ifE&RW sales fall year over year for a third straight quarter.
Less concerning ifE&RW sales grow year over year in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: Q3 gross margin rose just 10 basis points as inflation slightly outpaced pricing benefits in both segments. A further drop would show cost pressure remains.
Worry ifQ4 gross margin is below 47.9%.
Less concerning ifQ4 gross margin is 47.9% or higher.