Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Horizon Bancorp Inc/IN (HBNC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$20.85-2.75%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.24 → 2.24 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HBNC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve solid balance sheet growth with top-tier profitability | A supporting condition in Horizon Bancorp Inc/IN's published investment case. The stated target is solid balance sheet growth with strong profitability metrics. | Improving | Balance sheet growth stalls or profitability metrics weaken materially | Q3 2026 earnings beat with 20% ROTCE and stable margins Q3 2026 earnings beat, 20% ROTCE, stable margins, and Q4 NII guidance of $66M-$67M reinforce profitability recovery. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regional banking business with a mixed, execution-dependent long-term thesis rather than a clear turnaround. Momentum has improved, and recent earnings events were positive, but the thesis remains on watch because financial performance still trails its industry cohort.
Valuation is tagged as justified, with expectations broadly aligned and a small expectations gap. HBNC trades at a 1.21 premium versus peers, while its valuation measure has fallen notably; the evidence does not point to a clear valuation cushion.
Through the first nine months of 2026, loans and deposits grew, while return on average assets and net interest margin improved from the first to the third quarter. Expense control remains mixed, and recent financial performance is weak relative to the industry cohort. Near-term miss risk is described as low, but guidance cuts and recent peer misses remain risks to monitor.
The multi-year case depends on sustaining profitability gains and organic balance-sheet growth while showing more consistent expense discipline. Near term, a guidance cut or falling interest rates could weigh on the business and its sector; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from financial-sector bellwethers would support momentum.
For the next one to three years, HBNC shows improving momentum and evidence of growth, but the long-term thesis still hinges on more consistent execution and a stronger relative performance record. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain dividend payout at $0.16 per share | Horizon Bancorp keeps paying a steady dividend of $0.16 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.16 | Dividend per share: $0.16 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.16 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 20260.16 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
EPS at or above $2.10 in FY26 | Earnings per share are expected around $2.10 in 2026. | Broken | EPS falls below $2.10 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $0.56 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=2.10 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 21, 20260.56 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue decline no worse than -6.4% in next 12 months | A supporting condition in Horizon Bancorp Inc/IN's published investment case. The stated target is >=-6.4% YoY. | Intact | Revenue decline exceeds -6.4% YoY | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Revenue growth from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.22 → $2.24 · observed estimates
$0.32B → $0.32B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.22 | $323,884,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.22 | $323,884,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.22 | $323,909,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.22 | $323,909,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.22 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.22 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.22 | $323,909,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.22 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.23 | $323,909,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.24 | $324,359,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.24 | $324,359,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.24 | $324,359,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.24 | $324,359,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.24 | $324,359,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.24 | $324,359,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.24 | $324,359,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.24 | $324,359,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.24 | $324,359,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.24 | $324,359,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.24 | $324,359,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.24 | $324,359,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.24 | $324,359,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.24 | $324,359,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.24 | $324,359,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.24 | $324,359,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.24 | $324,345,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.24 | $324,345,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.24 | $324,345,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.24 | $324,345,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.24 | $324,345,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.24 | $324,345,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.24 | $324,345,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.24 | $324,345,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.24 | $324,345,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.24 | $324,345,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.24 | $324,345,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.24 | $324,345,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.24 | $324,345,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.24 | $324,345,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.24 | $324,479,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.24 | $324,504,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.24 | $324,504,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.24 | $324,504,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.24 | $324,504,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.24 | $324,504,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.24 | $324,504,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.24 | $324,504,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.24 | $324,504,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.24 | $324,504,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.24 | $324,504,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.24 | $324,504,250 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.24 | $324,504,250 | 4 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.