Horizon Bancorp Inc/IN (HBNC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$19.91+1.22%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HBNC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -7.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
HBNC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-22
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On July 22, 2026, Horizon Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing earnings and other financial results for the three–months ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and incorporated here by reference.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it may hurt profits. This could shake investor trust in Horizon's growth.
Worry ifQ3 net interest margin was below 4.30%.
Less concerning ifQ3 net interest margin remains at or above 4.30%.
Why it matters: An increase in charge-offs could indicate weakening credit quality. This may lead to higher provisions for credit losses.
Worry ifNet charge-offs are above 0.05% of average loans.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs are at or below 0.05%.
Why it matters: Keeping expenses low is key for making money. High expenses can hurt profits and performance.
Supportive ifIn Q3, non-interest expenses were less than $44 million.
Worry ifIn Q3, non-interest expenses were more than $45 million.
Why it matters: Loan growth below this level may show weak demand or competition. This could hurt future profits.
Worry ifQ3 total loans held for investment growth below 6% annualized.
Less concerning ifQ3 total loans held for investment growth at or above 6% annualized.
Why it matters: Higher legal charges may lower net income and raise worries about risks. This might change how investors feel.
Worry ifQ3 legal charges were more than $3 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 legal charges reported at or below $3 million.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good capital management. A change may mean financial trouble.
Watch forDividend remains at $0.16 per share in Q3.
Also watch forDividend payout is reduced in Q3.
Why it matters: Low net charge-offs show strong credit quality. This helps keep investor trust and future profits.
Supportive ifQ3 net charge-offs reported below 0.05%.
Worry ifQ3 net charge-offs exceed 0.10%.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This would impact Horizon's growth outlook.
Worry ifRevenue growth is higher than the median for the sector. This shows ongoing strength.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth falls below the median for the sector. This shows possible weakness.
Why it matters: A strong increase could show effective fee income strategies. This may enhance overall revenue stability.
Supportive ifQ3 non-interest income increases more than 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 non-interest income increases less than 5% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$81 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $224 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,665 loss on $10,000 · 16.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.