Health Catalyst, Inc. (HCAT)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.69-1.17%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HCAT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -22.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HCAT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Health Catalyst, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release relating to its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The foregoing information (including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto) is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended…
Why it matters: This shows better efficiency and financial health.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA was over $0.5 million for Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was below $0 million for Q3.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is key for Health Catalyst to support its operations and growth.
Supportive ifCash from operations shows a year-over-year increase of at least 10%.
Worry ifCash from operations goes down or stays the same each year.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is doing. They also show changes.
Watch forEarnings are better than market expectations. This shows strong performance.
Also watch forEarnings are below expectations. This raises worries about financial health.
Why it matters: Project Nexus aims to transform operations. Success or failure will impact future performance.
Watch forManagement says Project Nexus is doing well. They report strong operational metrics.
Also watch forManagement reports problems with Project Nexus. This leads to more job cuts.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$230 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $718 loss on $10,000 · 7.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,121 loss on $10,000 · 71.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow shows better financial health. It can help offset operating losses.
Supportive ifQ2 cash from operations is over $18.5M. This shows ongoing improvement.
Worry ifQ2 cash from operations falls below $18.5M, indicating cash flow issues.
Why it matters: Losing more money can mean bigger problems. This can hurt long-term success.
Worry ifQ2 operating income loss is over $106.5M. This shows worsening financial health.
Less concerning ifQ2 operating income loss is under $106.5M. This shows better management.
Why it matters: Meeting this guidance shows progress in Health Catalyst's changes.
Supportive ifQ2 total revenue reported at $68 million or higher.
Worry ifQ2 total revenue is below $68 million.
Why it matters: The health care sector's growth trends can affect Health Catalyst's performance and outlook.
Watch forRevenue growth in the health care sector re-accelerates back toward 10% or higher.
Also watch forSector revenue growth slows down to below 5%.
Why it matters: The sale could affect Health Catalyst's finances and focus.
Watch forFinishing the sale brings positive cash flow or a strategic edge.
Also watch forThe sale does not close or results in a negative financial impact.
Why it matters: Closing this deal is key to improving the balance sheet and focusing on core technology.
Supportive ifThe sale of Vitalware is done and made public.
Worry ifThe divestiture is delayed or fails to close as planned.
Why it matters: The workforce cut aims to simplify operations. Success may help financial results.
Watch forOperating expenses drop a lot after the workforce cut.
Also watch forOperating expenses stay the same or rise after the workforce cut.
Why it matters: How well the job cuts work will be key for Health Catalyst's model.
Worry ifOperating losses drop a lot in the next quarterly report.
Less concerning ifOperating losses stay high or get worse. This shows cost cuts are not working.
Why it matters: Not giving revenue guidance shows problems in the business. This can hurt investor trust.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue was less than $55 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 total revenue meets or exceeds $56 million.
Why it matters: Finishing the divestiture is important. It helps improve the balance sheet and focus on core tech.
Supportive ifVitalware sold for $147 million.
Worry ifDelays or failure to complete the divestiture.
Why it matters: A negative adjusted EBITDA shows money issues. This can impact future plans.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA was below $0.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA meets or exceeds $0.5 million.
Why it matters: How well the workforce cuts work will show if cost cuts are effective.
Watch forOperating costs dropped a lot in Q3 compared to Q2.
Also watch forOperating costs stayed the same or went up in Q3.