Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC)
NYSEMaterialsCoalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$104.45+1.14%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsCoalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HCC
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $104 HCC trades at 25× p/e — 1.4× the 18× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $84 fair value is medium-confidence here. The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $141 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| graham number | 12M | $63.67 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $94.50 | 12.2 | 7.56 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $112.93 | 15.0 | 7.52 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $47.42 | 1.5 | 31.79 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 409% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 10.2 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $1.04/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $107.79 |
| 25.9 |
| 4.16 |
| TTM |
| high |
| residual income | 12M | $46.44 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $75.92 | 17.9 | 4.24 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $157.33 | 15.0 | 10.48 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $79.76 | 1.5 | 53.47 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $271.56 | 25.9 | 10.48 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $208.06 | 15.0 | 13.86 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $105.48 | 1.5 | 70.71 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $359.13 | 25.9 | 13.86 | Analyst | medium |