Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC)
NYSEMaterialsCoalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$80.80-0.15%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsCoalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
8.27 → 9.68 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HCC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital expenditures near $62.5 million in 2026 | A supporting condition in Warrior Met Coal, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~62.5 million USD. | Broken | Capex exceeds $75 million or falls below $50 million in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $28.923M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~62.5 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 202628,923,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
HCC is a coal producer with a growth-and-execution thesis, supported by higher production and a sector tailwind. The long-term thesis is intact, and the recent signal improved from mixed to mildly favorable, though evidence confidence is medium.
HCC carries a premium to peers, which the evidence links to a durable premium, while the overall priced-in assessment is justified and fragility is low. The expectations gap is negative, so the valuation evidence points to some risk that expectations are ahead of what execution supports.
Near term, Blue Creek’s ramp-up has lifted sales and production volumes, and free cash flow turned positive in 2026-Q2 as capital spending eased and operating cash flow improved. Costs have fallen over time, but the cost priority is still rated behind; recent earnings misses and a 27% estimated near-term miss probability add uncertainty.
Over the next few quarters, continued volume growth, cost progress, and free cash flow generation would support the multi-year thesis. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while sector bellwethers AMR, METC, and AREC provide early signals: continued strong results could sustain the sector tailwind, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
The 1-to-3-year view is supported by improving volumes and cash generation, but depends on better cost execution and a sector backdrop that remains favorable. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Net income positive and improving |
| Net income rose from a loss to $72 million in the same period. |
| Improving |
| Net income falls below zero in FY26 |
Net income: $49.308M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >0 USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202649,308,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income positive and improving | Operating income improved from a loss to $79 million in Q1 2026. | Improving | Operating income falls below zero in FY26 | Operating income: $50.794M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >0 USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202650,794,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth at or above 27% YoY | A primary condition in Warrior Met Coal, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=27% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 27% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 54.58% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=27% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202654.578516 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.21 → $9.68 · observed estimates
$2.16B → $2.29B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.21 | $2,155,481,670 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.81 | $2,204,081,904 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.21 | $2,155,481,670 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.28 | $2,160,931,620 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.81 | $2,204,081,904 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.28 | $2,160,931,620 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.28 | $2,160,931,620 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.28 | $2,160,931,620 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.86 | $2,208,169,366 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.86 | $2,208,169,366 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.28 | $2,160,931,620 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.28 | $2,160,931,620 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.28 | $2,160,931,620 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.28 | $2,160,931,620 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $7.99 | $2,206,965,598 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.46 | $2,159,401,430 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.46 | $2,159,401,430 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.46 | $2,159,401,430 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.46 | $2,159,401,430 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.99 | $2,206,965,598 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.99 | $2,206,965,598 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.99 | $2,206,965,598 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.99 | $2,206,965,598 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.99 | $2,206,965,598 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.99 | $2,206,965,598 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.99 | $2,206,965,598 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $8.00 | $2,205,726,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $8.00 | $2,205,726,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $8.00 | $2,205,726,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $8.00 | $2,205,726,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $8.00 | $2,205,726,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $8.00 | $2,205,726,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $8.00 | $2,205,726,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $8.00 | $2,205,726,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $8.00 | $2,205,726,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $8.21 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $8.21 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $8.21 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $8.21 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $8.21 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $8.21 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $8.21 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $8.21 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $8.21 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $8.21 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $8.21 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $8.21 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $8.21 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $8.21 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $8.21 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $8.21 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $8.21 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $8.21 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $8.21 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $8.21 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $8.21 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $8.21 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $8.21 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $8.21 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $8.21 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $8.21 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $8.21 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $8.21 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $8.21 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $8.21 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $8.21 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $8.27 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $8.27 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $8.27 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $8.27 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $8.27 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $8.27 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $8.27 | $2,213,601,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $8.27 | $2,217,976,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $8.27 | $2,217,976,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $9.98 | $2,315,351,073 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $9.97 | $2,311,436,412 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $9.97 | $2,311,436,412 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $9.75 | $2,288,436,412 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $9.75 | $2,288,436,412 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $9.75 | $2,288,436,412 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $9.75 | $2,288,436,412 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $9.75 | $2,288,436,412 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.75 | $2,288,436,412 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.75 | $2,288,436,412 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $9.75 | $2,288,436,412 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $9.75 | $2,288,436,412 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $9.75 | $2,288,436,412 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $9.75 | $2,288,436,412 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $9.75 | $2,288,436,412 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $9.75 | $2,288,436,412 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $9.75 | $2,288,436,412 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $9.75 | $2,288,436,412 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $9.75 | $2,288,436,412 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $9.75 | $2,288,436,412 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.68 | $2,284,573,662 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $9.68 | $2,284,573,662 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.68 | $2,284,573,662 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.68 | $2,284,573,662 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.68 | $2,288,136,162 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.68 | $2,288,136,162 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $9.68 | $2,288,136,162 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $9.68 | $2,288,136,162 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.