Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC)
NYSEMaterialsCoalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$80.80-0.15%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsCoalSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HCC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 19.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HCC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 4, 2026, Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing the Company's third quarter 2026 results. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information provided pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 in Item 9.01, is “furnished” and shall not be deemed to be “filed” with the Securities and Exchange Commission or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities…
Why it matters: Warrior raised its 2026 sales range to 13.0–14.0 million tons after strong Blue Creek sales. A shortfall could point to slower customer uptake or mine delays.
Worry ifQ3 sales are below 2.8 million short tons, leaving the company short of the 13.0 million-ton annual floor at its Q4 pace.
Less concerning ifQ3 sales are at least 2.8 million short tons and 2026 guidance stays at 13.0–14.0 million tons.
Why it matters: Warrior has three longwall moves planned before year-end. These moves may affect production and costs.
Worry ifProduction falls below 3.0 million short tons in Q3 or Q4. A longwall move also causes a reported delay or disruption.
Less concerning ifProduction stays at or above 3.0 million short tons in both quarters. No delay from a move is reported.
Why it matters: The 45X credit helped lower Warrior's Q2 cash cost per ton. Changes in its benefit could affect costs and cash flow.
Watch forWarrior reports that the 45X credit continues to reduce cash cost per ton in Q3.
Also watch forWarrior reports that the credit no longer cuts costs, or that a lower credit raises cash cost per ton.
Why it matters: Warrior's Q2 price realization was about 66% of the PLV index, down from 80% a year earlier. Better realization could lift revenue per ton.
Supportive ifQ3 gross selling price realization rises above 66% of the PLV index.
Worry ifQ3 gross selling price realization is 66% or lower. The company reports weaker second-tier prices or higher freight costs.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$148 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $438 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,951 loss on $10,000 · 29.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Warrior cut cash cost per ton to $92.53 in Q2. A sharp rise would weaken the low-cost story.
Worry ifQ3 cash cost of sales is above $105 per short ton, the top of 2026 guidance.
Less concerning ifQ3 cash cost is $105 per short ton or less, within guidance.
Why it matters: Blue Creek construction is complete, and Warrior made $103.4 million of free cash flow in Q2. Further positive cash flow would show the shift to cash generation is holding.
Supportive ifQ3 free cash flow is positive, with capital spending within the 2026 guidance range.
Worry ifQ3 free cash flow is negative, or spending rises above the $190 million full-year capex guidance ceiling.