Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC)
NYSEMaterialsCoalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$104.45+1.14%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsCoalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HCC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 23.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 23.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HCC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-04-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing the Company's first quarter 2026 results. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information provided pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 in Item 9.01, is “furnished” and shall not be deemed to be “filed” with the Securities and Exchange Commission or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities E…
Why it matters: Completing these moves is important. It helps keep production levels steady.
Watch forAll planned longwall moves in Q3 are done on time. This ensures production stability.
Also watch forAny longwall move in Q3 is delayed, which could disrupt production.
Why it matters: Higher costs could impact margins and profitability. Keeping costs low is crucial for success.
Worry ifCash cost of sales (free-on-board port) per short ton reported above $110.
Less concerning ifCash cost of sales (free-on-board port) per short ton reported at or below $110.
Why it matters: GDP growth can influence steel demand, affecting Warrior's sales and pricing power.
Watch forGDP growth exceeds 2% in the second estimate on August 26, 2026.
Also watch forGDP growth is below 1% in the second estimate on August 26, 2026.
Why it matters: The guidance shows confidence in the business. It also shows how the market is doing.
Watch forManagement confirms full year 2026 guidance for coal sales of 12.5 - 13.5 million short tons.
Also watch forManagement lowers guidance for coal sales to below 12.0 million short tons.
Why it matters: Updates on coal production guidance will show if Blue Creek's ramp-up continues as planned.
Supportive ifCoal production guidance for Q2 exceeds 3.0 million short tons.
Worry ifCoal production guidance for Q2 is below 2.5 million short tons.
Why it matters: High net income helps the company's financial health and growth plans.
Supportive ifNet income for Q2 is over $70 million. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifNet income is below $50 million. This suggests possible challenges.
Why it matters: Net income is a key measure of financial health. A decline could signal deeper issues.
Worry ifQ2 2026 net income reported below $72.3 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 net income reported at or above $72.3 million.
Why it matters: Pricing trends affect revenue and profits. This is true during changing demand and supply.
Watch forSteelmaking coal prices rise above $150 per short ton. This shows better market conditions.
Also watch forSteelmaking coal prices drop below $130 per short ton. This shows ongoing market problems.
Why it matters: More production from Blue Creek helps overall growth. It also boosts profitability.
Supportive ifProduction from Blue Creek reported above 3.5 million short tons.
Worry ifProduction from Blue Creek reported below 3.0 million short tons.
Why it matters: Improving operating income is a key priority for management. It shows how well the company controls costs.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income goes up from Q1.
Worry ifQ2 operating income goes down from Q1.
Why it matters: Trade conditions affect pricing and demand for steelmaking coal. Changes impact revenue outlook.
Watch forPositive trade news leads to increased demand from India.
Also watch forNegative trade news leads to further restrictions impacting coal exports.
Why it matters: This report will show if revenue growth and operating income are improving. Investors will look closely at these numbers.
Watch forQ2 revenue growth turns positive year over year.
Also watch forQ2 revenue growth remains negative year over year.
Why it matters: The materials sector has been declining. A positive change could signal a recovery for Warrior Met Coal.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth turns positive after being near -2% for three years.
Worry ifSector revenue growth continues to decline or stays negative.
Why it matters: Maintaining high sales volumes shows strong demand for Blue Creek coal and supports growth.
Supportive ifQ3 sales are over 3.5 million short tons. This shows strong demand continues.
Worry ifQ3 sales are below 3.0 million short tons. This suggests demand is weakening.
Why it matters: Keeping costs low helps maintain margins. This is important as production grows.
Supportive ifCash cost of sales per short ton remains below $95, showing effective cost management.
Worry ifCash cost of sales per short ton rises above $105, indicating cost pressures.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow shows strong finances. It also helps with future investments.
Supportive ifFree cash flow exceeds $100 million in Q3, confirming strong cash generation.
Worry ifFree cash flow is negative in Q3. This raises concerns about financial stability.
Why it matters: Changes in the Producer Price Index can affect coal pricing and margins in the near term.
Watch forProducer Price Index shows an increase, supporting higher coal prices.
Also watch forProducer Price Index shows a decrease, leading to lower coal prices.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$179 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $434 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,951 loss on $10,000 · 29.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.