Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Howard Hughes Holdings Inc (HHH)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$78.03-1.30%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.13 → 3.68 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HHH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Announce and execute share buyback program | The company has a strong capital allocation plan including a share buyback. | Intact | No buyback announced or program halted | Buyback announced (qualitative) News and events confirm HHH announced a share buyback program in June 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
HHH is a mixed real estate business with growth from Master Planned Communities and a new insurance platform. Its long-term thesis is intact, though management execution has been volatile and earnings quality is fragile.
The valuation is described as cheap, but HHH still carries a premium versus peers, which points to a durable premium in the valuation framework. The expectations gap is small, so current pricing appears broadly justified rather than dependent on a large change in expectations.
Near-term results have been strong, including an August earnings beat, higher MPC earnings, and modest growth in Operating Assets NOI. Management completed the Vantage acquisition as planned, but integration remains important, and erratic earnings surprises that are trending down leave some risk of weaker guidance.
Over the next year, the thesis benefits if MPC land sales keep growing and the Vantage insurance platform integrates well. Fed rate cuts could support real estate, while weaker guidance or cracks among sector peers could remove that tailwind.
For a 1 to 3 year view, HHH’s operating progress supports an intact thesis, but fragile earnings quality and integration execution remain key uncertainties. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow is expected near $440 million in 2026. |
| Intact |
| Free cash flow falls below $415 million in FY26 |
Free cash flow: $503.974M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$440 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 2026503,974,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete integration of Vantage acquisition | Howard Hughes Holdings completed the $2.1 billion Vantage acquisition, expanding its business. | Improving | Integration delays or failure to realize benefits by FY26 end | Qualitative: Acquisition completed 2026-06-05; integration on track for FY26 target Vantage deal closed June 2026. Recent news confirms integration progress and strategic shift to insurance, reinforcing the thesis. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Vantage acquisition reshapes Howard Hughes into a diversified holding company powered by two principal operating platforms: Howard Hughes Communities™ and Vantage.” “For the stub period, Vantage contributed $97.2 million of net earned insurance premiums, $4.7 million of underwriting income, $11.0 million of net insurance investment income, and $20.8 million of loss before income taxes, with a combined ratio of 95% (loss ratio 57%; expense ratio 38%).” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue near $735 million in FY26 | Free cash flow is expected near $440 million in 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $620 million in FY26 | Revenue: $1.122B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$735 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 20261,122,327,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Vantage acquisition reshapes Howard Hughes into a diversified holding company powered by two principal operating platforms: Howard Hughes Communities™ and Vantage.” “For the stub period, Vantage contributed $97.2 million of net earned insurance premiums, $4.7 million of underwriting income, $11.0 million of net insurance investment income, and $20.8 million of loss before income taxes, with a combined ratio of 95% (loss ratio 57%; expense ratio 38%).” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.47 → $3.68 · observed estimates
$1.41B → $2.81B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.47 | $1,411,615,400 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.09 | $1,478,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.47 | $1,411,615,400 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.09 | $1,478,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.47 | $1,411,615,400 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.47 | $1,411,615,400 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.27 | $1,464,265,400 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.27 | $1,464,265,400 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.27 | $1,464,265,400 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.27 | $1,464,265,400 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.27 | $1,464,265,400 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.27 | $1,464,265,400 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.27 | $1,464,265,400 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.27 | $1,464,265,400 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.27 | $1,464,265,400 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.67 | $1,464,150,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.13 | $2,081,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.13 | $2,081,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.13 | $2,081,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.13 | $2,081,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.13 | $2,081,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.13 | $2,081,650,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.13 | $2,081,650,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.13 | $2,081,650,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.13 | $2,081,650,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.13 | $2,081,650,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.13 | $2,081,650,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.13 | $2,081,650,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.13 | $2,081,650,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.13 | $2,081,650,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.13 | $2,081,650,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.13 | $2,081,650,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.13 | $2,081,650,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.13 | $2,081,650,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.13 | $2,081,650,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.13 | $2,081,650,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.13 | $2,081,650,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.13 | $2,081,650,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.13 | $2,081,650,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.23 | $2,364,133,333 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.23 | $2,364,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.23 | $2,364,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.23 | $2,364,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.23 | $2,364,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.23 | $2,364,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.23 | $2,364,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.23 | $2,364,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.23 | $2,364,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.23 | $2,364,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.23 | $2,364,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.23 | $2,364,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.23 | $2,364,133,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.23 | $2,809,298,929 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.23 | $2,809,298,929 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.68 | $2,809,298,929 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.68 | $2,809,298,929 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.68 | $2,809,298,929 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.68 | $2,809,298,929 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.68 | $2,809,298,929 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.68 | $2,809,298,929 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.68 | $2,809,298,929 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.68 | $2,809,298,929 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.