Howard Hughes Holdings Inc (HHH)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$64.12+0.96%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HHH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -44.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -30.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HHH — capital allocation
Dated 2026-06-05
by reference. The Preferred Stock has not been and will not be registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the securities laws of any state or other jurisdiction, and were offered in reliance upon the exemption from registration afforded by Section 4(a)(2) under the Securities Act and/or Regulation D promulgated thereunder and, as applicable, corresponding provisions of state securities laws, which exempt transactions by an issuer not involving any…
Why it matters: How capital is used can affect growth and stability. This is important after the Vantage deal.
Watch forManagement shares a clear plan for capital use with specific goals.
Also watch forManagement does not share a clear plan for capital use or delays updates.
Why it matters: Growth in NOI from operating assets shows Howard Hughes is making more steady income.
Supportive ifOperating Assets NOI increases by more than 3% year over year in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating Assets NOI growth falls below 1% year over year.
Why it matters: How Howard Hughes handles its debt affects its financial health. Good refinancing can cut costs and boost cash flow.
Supportive ifHoward Hughes will announce a successful refinancing of at least $500 million by Q4 2026.
Worry ifHoward Hughes may not refinance its debt or could face higher interest rates.
Why it matters: Closing the Vantage deal marks a key step in Howard Hughes' transformation. It adds a new revenue source and strengthens the company's growth profile.
Supportive ifThe acquisition of Vantage closes as planned during Q2 2026.
Worry ifThe acquisition faces delays or fails to close as scheduled.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$94 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $264 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,139 loss on $10,000 · 31.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Completing the Vantage acquisition is key for growth and market position. It shows progress in management's strategy.
Supportive ifVantage is now part of Howard Hughes. This was confirmed by an official announcement.
Worry ifThere are delays or problems in the integration of Vantage.
Why it matters: Continued growth in MPC EBT shows strong demand in real estate, which supports overall performance.
Supportive ifMPC EBT grows year over year by more than 30% in the next quarter.
Worry ifMPC EBT growth is less than 10% year over year in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change the direction and success of the new insurance platform.
Watch forMarc Grandisson and David Gansberg start new plans. These plans help performance.
Also watch forChanges in leadership create confusion. This can lead to poor performance at Vantage.
Why it matters: Howard Hughes' use of money after buying Vantage will impact its growth and stability. Good money management is very important.
Watch forManagement shares a clear plan for capital use that helps support growth.
Also watch forManagement has not shared a clear plan for using money. This creates uncertainty.
Why it matters: When the share buyback happens will show how much management believes in the company's value.
Supportive ifManagement announces the start of the share buyback program within the next quarter.
Worry ifNo buyback activity is reported within the next six months.
Why it matters: Growth in MPC sales shows strong demand and good strategy execution.
Supportive ifMPC land sales increase by more than 30% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifMPC land sales grow less than 10% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Loss ratios will show how well Vantage manages risk and underwrites.
Worry ifVantage reports a loss ratio below 50% for Q3.
Less concerning ifVantage reports a loss ratio above 70% for Q3.
Why it matters: Full Q3 metrics will show how well Vantage works after the acquisition.
Watch forVantage reports net earned insurance premiums over $400 million for Q3.
Also watch forVantage reports net earned insurance premiums below $200 million for Q3.