Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
$289.41-4.80%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HII
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HII — CEO transition
Dated 2026-10-20
Director — C. Michael Petters: The filing announces the election of a former CEO to the Board of Directors, which is a governance change rather than a departure of a sitting executive.
Why it matters: Shipbuilding revenue rose, but management kept its margin range unchanged. The year-end result will show whether HII can deliver more work at the stated margin.
Supportive ifFY26 shipbuilding operating margin is at least 6.0%, the low end of the stated range.
Worry ifFY26 shipbuilding operating margin is below 6.0%, or HII cuts the range.
Why it matters: Mission Technologies revenue barely changed year over year in Q3. Its unmanned awards and new capacity now face a clear full-year revenue test.
Watch forFY26 Mission Technologies revenue reaches at least $3.0 billion, the low end of the stated range.
Also watch forFY26 Mission Technologies revenue is below $3.0 billion, or HII cuts its range.
Why it matters: HII raised its shipbuilding revenue range to $10.5 billion to $10.7 billion. Results test whether higher ship volume is reaching the books.
Supportive ifFY26 shipbuilding revenue is at least $10.5 billion, the low end of the latest range.
Worry ifFY26 shipbuilding revenue is below $10.5 billion, or HII cuts its range before year-end.
Why it matters: HII kept its $500 million to $600 million cash goal. First-quarter and second-quarter cash flow were negative, while Q3 reached $429 million.
Supportive ifFY26 free cash flow reaches at least $500 million, the low end of the stated range.
Worry ifFY26 free cash flow ends below $500 million, or HII lowers its range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$103 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $349 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,335 loss on $10,000 · 43.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The award gives HII a named test of its maritime autonomy push. Production progress can show whether the new work turns into shipped vessels.
Supportive ifHII reports when work starts or vessels are delivered under the contract for 10 ROMULUS USVs.
Worry ifHII reports a delay, cancellation, or cut in the 10-vessel ROMULUS contract.