Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$285.93-1.65%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HII
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -23.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 28.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers
Review the full earnings evidenceWhy it matters: Dropping below this level shows cash generation problems. This affects future investments.
Worry ifFY26 free cash flow reported below $500 million.
Less concerning ifFY26 free cash flow reported within the $500-$600 million range.
Why it matters: If revenue stabilizes, it shows progress toward the FY26 goal of $3.0-$3.2 billion.
Watch forQ3 Mission Technologies revenue shows no decline from Q2's $760 million.
Also watch forQ3 Mission Technologies revenue drops more from Q2's $760 million.
Why it matters: Steady earnings growth shows good performance and strong demand in the market.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 diluted earnings per share matches or exceeds $4.04.
Worry ifQ2 2026 diluted earnings per share drops below $3.50.
Why it matters: Keeping a strong operating margin is key for making money. It shows good cost control as revenue grows.
Supportive ifThe shipbuilding operating margin is more than 6.0% in Q3.
Worry ifThe shipbuilding operating margin drops below 5.5% in Q3.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow supports HII's financial health and ability to invest in growth.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported between $125 million and $150 million for Q2 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow is negative or below $100 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Missing this guidance shows weak demand or problems in shipbuilding.
Worry ifFY26 shipbuilding revenue was less than $10.2 billion.
Less concerning ifFY26 shipbuilding revenue reported within or above the $10.2-$10.4 billion range.
Why it matters: This growth confirms the company's ability to increase throughput and meet its targets for 2026.
Supportive ifQ3 shipbuilding revenue growth of 10% or more compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 shipbuilding revenue growth below 10% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: Many contract awards show strong demand and growth, which helps future revenue.
Supportive ifNew contract awards in Q3 exceed $5 billion.
Worry ifNew contract awards in Q3 fall below $4 billion.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong demand and future revenue. It shows the order pipeline is healthy.
Supportive ifTotal backlog exceeds $55 billion in Q2 2026.
Worry ifTotal backlog declines below $54 billion in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Reaching this goal shows HII can meet rising demand. It shows they work well.
Supportive ifShipbuilding throughput growth reaches or exceeds 15% year over year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThroughput growth falls below 10% year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Staying within the $3.0-$3.2 billion range shows stability in this segment. It reflects demand for tech solutions.
Supportive ifMission Technologies made between $3.0 billion and $3.2 billion in Q3 2026.
Worry ifMission Technologies made less than $3.0 billion in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means better money management. It helps with future investments.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported in Q3 2026 is between $500 million and $600 million.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported in Q3 2026 remains negative or below $500 million.
Why it matters: Keeping this guidance shows trust in demand and ability to operate. It shows a strong market.
Watch forShipbuilding revenue reported in Q3 2026 is within the $10.2-$10.4 billion range.
Also watch forShipbuilding revenue reported in Q3 2026 falls below $10.2 billion.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$105 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $332 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,077 loss on $10,000 · 40.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.