Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
Helios Technologies, Inc. (HLIO)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$60.09-10.25%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.59 → 3.54 EPS · FY ending Jan 3, 2028 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HLIO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2026 EPS at least $2.75 | A supporting condition in Helios Technologies, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=2.75 USD_PER_SHARE. | Intact | 2026 EPS falls below $2.60 | Diluted EPS: $0.66 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2.75 USD_PER_SHARE. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 11, 20260.66 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-through-acquisitions and operational-improvement story, with robust earnings quality and strong recent performance. The multi-year view is intact, but risk has recently moved from moderate to elevated.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure says HLIO is cheap versus peers, while another shows an 85% premium to peers; the overall value assessment is expensive. The expectations gap is negative, but the snapshot labels what is priced in as justified and reports low fragility.
Near term, revenue growth and margin expansion have been progressing, and management raised its 2026 revenue guidance. Leverage has improved, while capital returns have continued. Near-term miss risk is described as low, but past deep misses and recent peer misses remain cautions.
The multi-year thesis depends on acquisitions and organic growth continuing to support revenue, and on operating margins progressing toward management’s 2030 goal. In the near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued strength or weakness among industrial bellwethers could also change the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, HLIO’s operating progress supports an intact long-term thesis, but elevated risk and an expensive overall valuation make execution and sector conditions important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company raised 2026 revenue guidance to $840-$870 million. |
| Intact |
| 2026 revenue falls below $820 million |
Revenue: $231.9M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=840 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 11, 2026231,900,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We increased sales 16% on a pro-forma basis in the second quarter, expanded adjusted EBITDA margin above 21%, and continued to deliver significant year-over-year growth in earnings per share.” “While we remain mindful of the tougher comparisons in the back half and ongoing external factors, including geopolitical uncertainty, tariff dynamics, and broader inflationary pressures, our confidence in the business, new business wins, and our visibility into near-term demand support raising the full year outlook for sales and earnings.” Revenue was $231.900 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Operating margin expands to 20% by 2030 | A primary condition in Helios Technologies, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=20 PERCENT. | Intact | Operating margin falls below 15% by 2030 | Operating margin: 14.01% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=20 PERCENT. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 11, 202614.014661 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Our continued margin expansion is an outcome of our volume outperformance, innovative products, and operating leverage gains.” “Our focus remains on executing against our key priorities, converting our growing sales funnel into new business wins, institutionalizing innovation, and driving operational excellence across our global footprint.” Operating income was $32.500 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue grows to $1.6 billion by 2030 | A primary condition in Helios Technologies, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=1600 USD_MILLIONS. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1.3 billion by 2030 | Revenue: $231.9M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1600 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 11, 2026231,900,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We increased sales 16% on a pro-forma basis in the second quarter, expanded adjusted EBITDA margin above 21%, and continued to deliver significant year-over-year growth in earnings per share.” “While we remain mindful of the tougher comparisons in the back half and ongoing external factors, including geopolitical uncertainty, tariff dynamics, and broader inflationary pressures, our confidence in the business, new business wins, and our visibility into near-term demand support raising the full year outlook for sales and earnings.” Revenue was $231.900 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.36 → $3.54 · observed estimates
$0.91B → $0.94B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.36 | $913,413,319 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.36 | $913,413,319 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.36 | $913,793,319 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.36 | $913,793,319 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.36 | $913,793,319 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.36 | $913,793,319 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.36 | $913,793,319 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.36 | $913,793,319 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.36 | $913,793,319 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.36 | $913,793,319 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.36 | $913,793,319 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.36 | $913,793,319 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.36 | $913,793,319 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.36 | $913,793,319 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.36 | $913,793,319 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.36 | $913,793,319 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.36 | $913,793,319 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.36 | $913,793,319 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.36 | $913,793,319 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.36 | $913,793,319 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.36 | $913,793,319 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.36 | $913,793,319 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.36 | $913,793,319 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.36 | $913,793,319 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.36 | $913,793,319 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.36 | $913,793,319 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.61 | $950,620,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.61 | $950,620,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.61 | $950,620,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.59 | $949,521,925 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.59 | $949,863,871 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.59 | $949,863,871 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.59 | $949,863,871 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.59 | $949,863,871 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.59 | $949,863,871 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.59 | $949,863,871 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.54 | $944,183,871 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.54 | $944,183,871 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.54 | $944,183,871 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.54 | $944,183,871 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.54 | $944,183,871 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.54 | $944,183,871 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.54 | $944,183,871 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.54 | $944,183,871 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.54 | $944,183,871 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.54 | $944,183,871 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.54 | $944,183,871 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.54 | $944,183,871 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.54 | $944,183,871 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.54 | $944,183,871 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.54 | $944,183,871 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.54 | $944,183,871 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.