Helios Technologies, Inc. (HLIO)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$66.95-2.16%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HLIO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -14.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 3.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers
HLIO — dividend update
Dated 2026-09-29
Other Events. On September 28, 2026, the Registrant issued the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 announcing a $0.12 per share cash dividend on its common stock, payable on October 26, 2026, to shareholders of record as of October 13, 2026.
Why it matters: Q3 results test whether strong sales continue after four quarters of double-digit pro-forma growth. Sales below the range would weaken that trend.
Worry ifQ3 2026 sales come in below $215 million, the low end of the company’s outlook.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 sales reach at least $215 million and stay within or above the $215 million–$222 million outlook.
Why it matters: The sector is in a mature phase, with growth slowing. A return toward past growth highs would ease this sector headwind.
Supportive ifThe industrial sector’s reported three-year revenue growth rises back toward its prior highs.
Worry ifThe industrial sector’s three-year revenue growth stays near 4% or falls further.
Why it matters: Hydraulics APAC sales fell 8% in Q2 while other regions grew. Another decline would point to a weak spot in a key segment.
Worry ifHydraulics APAC sales fall year over year again in Q3.
Less concerning ifHydraulics APAC sales grow year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: The raised outlook points to record annual sales at its midpoint. Results below the range would challenge the growth case.
Worry ifFY2026 sales finish below $880 million, the low end of the raised outlook.
Less concerning ifFY2026 sales reach at least $880 million and stay within or above the $880 million–$900 million outlook.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$118 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $342 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,878 loss on $10,000 · 28.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The margin outlook tests whether higher sales and better plant output keep lifting profits. A miss would break the recent margin gains.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA margin prints below 19.8%, the low end of the company’s outlook.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA margin is 19.8% or higher. This is within or above the 19.8%–20.6% outlook.