Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN)
NASDAQIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$7.680.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Hillman raised 2026 revenue guidance to about $1.7 billion. It aims for $100M to $120M free cash flow. Profit goals are $275M to $285M adjusted EBITDA. The company grows with acquisitions and steady demand.
Free cash flow is weak with a $19.5M loss in Q1. Profit fell from $16.7M to $7.2M in Q1. Leadership changes and litigation add risks.
The price is about 43% below our fair value near $14. Analysts expect about 8% revenue growth. Our view aligns with this cautious optimism.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $275 million in FY26
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $100 million in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $1.53 billion in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
HLMN represents a durable compounder with a focus on strategic acquisitions and revenue growth. The current thesis state is stable, supported by management's execution on key priorities and recent positive developments.
The market appears to have a neutral valuation stance on HLMN, with expectations that are slightly below peers. The current pricing reflects a low expectations gap, suggesting that the market does not anticipate significant changes in performance.
Management is on track with its priorities, showing progress in revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth. However, there is a moderate risk of missing guidance, especially given the company's recent history of misses.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SNA, RBC, and LECO. Positive earnings and guidance from these companies could support HLMN's momentum, while negative trends could pose risks.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. HLMN has experienced a sharp drop of 19% from its recent high. This decline suggests the market is repricing the reasons to own the stock. The company’s fundamentals remain intact, but the sector backdrop is a drag.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Raise full-year 2026 net sales guidance reflecting acquisitions and organic growth.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management raised full-year 2026 net sales guidance from $1.630-$1.730 billion to $1.670-$1.720 billion, reflecting acquisitions and organic growth. Revenue increased from $370.1 million in 2026-Q1 to $442.3 million in 2026-Q2. The trajectory is delivering on this guidance increase.
“Raised FY 2026 Net Sales guidance to $1.670 to $1.720 billion.”
“Raising full year net sales guidance, driven by two acquisitions made subsequent to quarter end.”
“Affirms 2026 guidance of $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion in net sales.”
Overall, HLMN's fundamentals are showing promise, but external sector performance will be crucial in the coming months. Not investment advice.