Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp
Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN)
NASDAQIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$8.53-2.85%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.69 → 0.65 EPS · FY ending Dec 27, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HLMN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $275 million in 2026 | Profit goals are $275M to $285M adjusted EBITDA. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $275 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an acquisition-led industrial growth story, not yet a proven durable compounder, since it remains loss-making. The thesis is weakened this week, with medium confidence: management execution is on track, but recent performance has slipped within its industry.
The evidence describes HLMN as cheap versus peers, while the valuation model also indicates a 57% premium versus peers and a negative expectations gap of 0.25, so the valuation picture is mixed. Priced-in fragility is low, but the evidence does not spell out exactly what earnings or growth expectations the market assumes.
Near term, revenue and adjusted EBITDA have progressed, and management raised the 2026 sales guidance range and midpoint for adjusted EBITDA. Acquisitions, including Kanebridge, support the industrial distribution expansion, but recent performance has weakened relative to the industry and the company remains loss-making.
The 1-to-3-year thesis depends on acquisitions continuing to support growth and management delivering its 2026 guidance. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued strength from industrial bellwethers such as SNA, SWK, and LECO would support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
HLMN has a credible growth plan with execution evidence, but its loss-making status, weaker recent industry standing, and sector headwind leave the multi-year view less robust. The central test is whether acquisition-led growth and guidance delivery can outweigh those concerns. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It aims for $100M to $120M free cash flow. |
| Intact |
| Free cash flow falls below $100 million in FY26 |
Free cash flow: $70.216M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $100 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 202670,216,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
2026 revenue reaches at least $1.63 billion | A primary condition in Hillman Solutions Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.63 billion. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1.53 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $457.488M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.63 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 2026457,488,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.68 → $0.65 · observed estimates
$1.74B → $1.80B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.68 | $1,744,146,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.68 | $1,744,146,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.68 | $1,744,146,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.68 | $1,744,146,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.68 | $1,744,146,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.68 | $1,744,146,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.68 | $1,744,146,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.68 | $1,744,146,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.68 | $1,744,146,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.68 | $1,744,146,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.68 | $1,744,146,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.68 | $1,744,146,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.68 | $1,744,146,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.68 | $1,744,146,857 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.68 | $1,787,420,167 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.68 | $1,787,420,167 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.68 | $1,787,420,167 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.68 | $1,787,420,167 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.68 | $1,787,420,167 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.68 | $1,787,420,167 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.68 | $1,787,420,167 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.68 | $1,787,420,167 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.68 | $1,787,420,167 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.68 | $1,787,420,167 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.68 | $1,787,420,167 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.68 | $1,787,420,167 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.68 | $1,799,936,833 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.68 | $1,799,936,833 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.68 | $1,799,936,833 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.68 | $1,799,936,833 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.68 | $1,799,936,833 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.68 | $1,799,936,833 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.68 | $1,799,936,833 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.68 | $1,799,936,833 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.68 | $1,799,936,833 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.68 | $1,799,936,833 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.68 | $1,799,936,833 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.68 | $1,799,936,833 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.68 | $1,799,936,833 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.68 | $1,799,936,833 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.68 | $1,799,936,833 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.68 | $1,799,936,833 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.68 | $1,799,936,833 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.68 | $1,799,936,833 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.68 | $1,799,936,833 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.68 | $1,799,936,833 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.68 | $1,799,936,833 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.68 | $1,799,936,833 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.69 | $1,803,088,714 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.69 | $1,803,088,714 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.69 | $1,803,088,714 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.69 | $1,803,088,714 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.69 | $1,803,088,714 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.69 | $1,803,088,714 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.69 | $1,803,088,714 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.69 | $1,803,088,714 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.69 | $1,803,088,714 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.69 | $1,803,088,714 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.69 | $1,803,088,714 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.69 | $1,803,088,714 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.69 | $1,803,088,714 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.69 | $1,803,088,714 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.69 | $1,803,088,714 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.69 | $1,803,088,714 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.69 | $1,803,088,714 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.69 | $1,803,088,714 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.69 | $1,803,088,714 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.69 | $1,803,088,714 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.69 | $1,803,088,714 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.69 | $1,803,374,429 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.69 | $1,803,374,429 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.69 | $1,803,374,429 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.69 | $1,803,374,429 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.69 | $1,803,374,429 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.69 | $1,803,374,429 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.69 | $1,803,374,429 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.69 | $1,803,374,429 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.69 | $1,803,374,429 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.69 | $1,803,374,429 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.69 | $1,803,374,429 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.69 | $1,803,374,429 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.69 | $1,803,374,429 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.69 | $1,803,374,429 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.69 | $1,803,374,429 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.69 | $1,803,374,429 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.69 | $1,803,374,429 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.69 | $1,803,374,429 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.69 | $1,803,374,429 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.68 | $1,801,746,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.68 | $1,801,746,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.68 | $1,801,746,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.68 | $1,801,746,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.68 | $1,801,746,143 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.68 | $1,799,603,286 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.68 | $1,799,603,286 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.68 | $1,799,603,286 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.68 | $1,799,336,429 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.68 | $1,799,336,429 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.68 | $1,799,336,429 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.68 | $1,799,336,429 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.68 | $1,799,336,429 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.68 | $1,799,275,180 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.65 | $1,802,464,971 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.