Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN)
NASDAQIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$7.680.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HLMN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -19.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 29.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HLMN — credit agreement
Dated 2026-09-03
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. In connection with the completion of the acquisition of Kanebridge, LLC (“Kanebridge”), on August 28, 2026, Hillman Solutions Corp.’s (the “Company”) wholly‑owned subsidiaries, The Hillman Companies, Inc., (“Holdings”) and The Hillman Group, Inc. (the “Borrower”) entered into Amendment No. 1 (the “First Amendment”) to that certain term loan credit agreement, dated as of July 22, 2026, by and among Jefferies Finance LLC, as administrative agent, and…
Why it matters: The ongoing lawsuit could affect financial results and how investors feel.
Worry ifManagement gives updates that show a good outcome in the lawsuit.
Less concerning ifManagement shares bad news about the lawsuit.
Why it matters: If Hillman hits this target, it shows they are controlling costs. This helps them grow revenue and stay financially healthy.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 reaches or exceeds $285 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 falls below $275 million.
Why it matters: Keeping this guidance shows they are making strong cash. This is important for funding growth and buying other companies.
Supportive ifManagement reaffirms free cash flow guidance in the range of $105 to $115 million.
Worry ifManagement lowers free cash flow guidance below $100 million.
Why it matters: Management has increased its revenue forecast. Changes could mean there are problems with growth.
Worry ifManagement maintains full year 2026 net sales guidance of $1.63 to $1.73 billion.
Less concerning ifManagement lowers the full year 2026 net sales guidance below $1.63 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$138 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $337 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,445 loss on $10,000 · 34.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The earnings results will confirm if the revenue growth trend continues. Investors will assess performance against guidance.
Watch forReported net sales between $440 million and $444 million, an increase of 9% to 10% year over year.
Also watch forNet sales fall below $440 million or show no growth year over year.
Why it matters: Slower sales growth may show problems in the market or issues after the purchase.
Worry ifQ3 2026 net sales growth below 9% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 net sales growth at or above 9% year over year.
Why it matters: This acquisition is important for Hillman. It helps grow their industrial MRO business.
Supportive ifThe Kanebridge acquisition should close as planned at the start of Q4 2026.
Worry ifAny delays or failure to finish the Kanebridge deal.
Why it matters: A drop in adjusted EBITDA may show problems in operations or issues from recent buys.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for 2026 is less than $275 million.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA for 2026 remains at or above $275 million.
Why it matters: A drop in free cash flow could indicate financial strain and affect future investments.
Worry ifFree cash flow for 2026 drops below $105 million.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow for 2026 stays at or above $105 million.