Hilton Worldwide (HLT)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$311.18-1.01%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HLT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 7.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers
HLT — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-28
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 28, 2026, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing the results of the Company’s operations for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is being furnished pursuant to
Why it matters: New brands can drive growth and market share. Fewer launches may indicate a slowdown in innovation.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least two new brands launched in 2026.
Worry ifNo new brands launched in 2026.
Why it matters: Consumer spending impacts hotel stays and earnings. Trends show if demand is going up or down.
Watch forConsumer spending grew over 3% in the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report.
Also watch forConsumer spending growth reported below 1% in the same report.
Why it matters: New brands can attract different customer segments and drive growth. Successful launches can enhance Hilton's market position.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of Select by Hilton brand launch with YOTEL as the first partner.
Worry ifNo new brands or partnerships announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Strong performance from new brands could enhance growth and market presence.
Supportive ifNew brand metrics show strong performance. They exceeded initial expectations.
Worry ifNew brand metrics show weak performance. They fell below expectations.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$89 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $241 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,120 loss on $10,000 · 11.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New brand launches could boost growth and market presence, showing good management.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a new brand launch beyond Undergraduate by Hilton and Select by Hilton.
Worry ifNo new brand launches announced through the end of 2026.
Why it matters: This is a key indicator of demand trends and pricing power in the hotel sector.
Worry ifIn Q3, the growth of RevPAR was below 4.0% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 system-wide comparable RevPAR growth was at or above 4.0% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Successful brand launches can drive growth and market share in competitive segments.
Supportive ifLaunch of a new brand that exceeds initial performance expectations within the first year.
Worry ifNew brand launches fail to meet initial performance expectations within the first year.
Why it matters: Net unit growth is important for Hilton's long-term growth and making money.
Worry ifNet unit growth reported below 6.0% for the full year 2026.
Less concerning ifNet unit growth reported between 6.0% and 7.0% for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: Capital return is a key measure of shareholder value and financial health.
Worry ifTotal capital return was below $3.5 billion for 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal capital return was at or above $3.5 billion for 2026.