Hilton Worldwide (HLT)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLodgingSnapshot 2026-07-07
$340.96+0.46%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $340.96. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $341 HLT trades at 41× p/e, in line with its 34× p/e peer median — but our blended $277 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range and quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $312–$371. Note: our $277 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($312–$371). Not investment advice.
$312.00 – $371.00 (median $347.50) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-05-15
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 130% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 15.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $6.63/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $347.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $250.19 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $227.76 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $286.16 | 34.3 | 8.34 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $140.17 | 15.0 | 12.71 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $189.52 | 20.3 | 9.31 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $288.22 | 34.3 | 8.40 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $114.72 | 2.2 | 52.94 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $182.67 | 21.7 | 8.40 | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $332.62 | 39.6 | 8.40 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $290.61 | 34.3 | 8.47 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $442.37 | 34.3 | 12.89 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $245.98 | 20.3 | 12.09 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $415.70 | 34.3 | 12.12 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $153.68 | 2.2 | 70.91 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $263.46 | 21.7 | 12.12 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $479.74 | 39.6 | 12.12 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $591.43 | 34.3 | 17.24 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $292.68 | 20.3 | 14.38 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $503.07 | 34.3 | 14.66 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $185.98 | 2.2 | 85.82 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $318.83 | 21.7 | 14.66 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $580.57 | 39.6 | 14.66 | Analyst | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.