Hilton Worldwide (HLT)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$311.18-1.01%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — EPS of about $8.34 in FY26: FY26 EPS guidance mid $8.29 vs target $8.28; low $8.22 is below target.
Hilton grows its hotel units about 6% a year. It plans to return $3.5 billion to shareholders in 2026. Earnings per share are expected to rise to about $8.34 in 2026. The company benefits from strong brand loyalty and global tourism events.
Travel demand may soften due to economic or consumer spending cuts. Competition from Airbnb and other alternatives could hurt growth. Guidance cuts signal risks to earnings momentum.
The price is about 23% above our fair value near $277, reflecting roughly 10% revenue growth expected by analysts. Our fair value is 20% below the Street median, indicating some optimism in the market that we do not fully share.
Breaks if: capital return falls below $3.0 billion in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 6% YoY in FY26
Breaks if: EPS falls below $8.28 in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth and capital return. The current thesis is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's commitment to growth initiatives.
The valuation is considered expensive compared to peers, reflecting a durable premium. The market seems to have priced in a stable performance trajectory, with only a slight expectations gap indicating that investors are cautious but not overly pessimistic.
Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, supported by management's focus on net unit growth and capital returns. However, there is a moderate risk due to potential economic headwinds and the company's recent history of misses in earnings.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to meet growth targets and navigate sector headwinds. Key factors include guidance updates, inflation trends, and performance from sector peers that could influence investor sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. Hilton raised its annual room revenue growth forecast. This reflects strong demand for luxury hotels. However, the profit forecast fell short of expectations. This raises concerns about capital returns.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: net unit growth falls below 6.0% in FY26
Overall, Hilton's operational strategy and recent performance provide a solid foundation for the next few years. Not investment advice.