Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Hilton Worldwide (HLT)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-11-05
$369.64-1.83%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
10.40 → 10.41 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 18 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 17 to 18; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HLT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital return of approximately $3.5 billion in 2026 | It plans to return $3.5 billion to shareholders in 2026. | Intact | capital return falls below $3.0 billion in FY26 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Cash returned to shareholders from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 7 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “During the nine months ended September 30, 2026 we repurchased 8.2 million shares of Hilton common stock at an average price per share of $316.36, returning $2,705 million of capital to shareholders, including dividends.” “• Capital return is projected to be approximately $3.5 billion.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
HLT is a durable expansion business, with growth tied to adding rooms and developing brands and markets. The long-term thesis is intact, while management execution is mixed and the valuation is expensive versus peers.
The valuation carries a durable premium over peers, and the model points to a 16% expectations gap. This suggests the market already assumes continued execution and growth, so the premium depends on Hilton delivering on its expansion priorities.
Near term, recent financial performance is strong, guidance credibility has improved, and Hilton added 23,000 net rooms in the third quarter while its pipeline reached 543,100 rooms. The miss risk is described as low, though peers have missed recently and Hilton has had a deep miss in its history; a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative.
Over the next year, the thesis depends on Hilton delivering its stated 6.0% to 7.0% net unit growth range and making progress toward its 2026 capital-return projection. Sector signals also matter: continued strength from MAR, IHG, and H could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken that support.
For the 1-to-3-year view, the business setup remains intact, but the expensive valuation makes sustained execution important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Sustained travel demand supporting revenue growth | A supporting condition in Hilton Worldwide's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue growth >= 6% YoY. | Intact | Revenue growth falls below 6% YoY in FY26 | Revenue growth: 6.57% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Revenue growth >= 6% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 27, 20266.570513 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
EPS of about $8.34 in FY26 | A primary condition in Hilton Worldwide's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $8.28 and <= $8.40. | Broken | EPS falls below $8.28 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $2.37 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $8.28 and <= $8.40. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 27, 20262.37 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net unit growth of 6.0% to 7.0% in 2026 | A primary condition in Hilton Worldwide's published investment case. The stated target is 6.0% to 7.0% net unit growth. | Intact | net unit growth falls below 6.0% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$10.40 → $10.41 · observed estimates
$14.13B → $14.13B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $10.40 | $14,125,904,597 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $10.45 | $14,156,145,440 | 25 / 16 |
| 2026-07-26 | $10.45 | $14,156,145,440 | 25 / 16 |
| 2026-07-27 | $10.45 | $14,156,145,440 | 25 / 16 |
| 2026-07-28 | $10.41 | $14,126,904,597 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $10.38 | $14,142,808,915 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $10.46 | $14,149,487,350 | 23 / 14 |
| 2026-07-31 | $10.44 | $14,170,064,070 | 24 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | $10.40 | $14,145,059,455 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-02 | $10.45 | $14,168,864,070 | 24 / 15 |
| 2026-08-03 | $10.40 | $14,145,059,455 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $10.40 | $14,145,059,455 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $10.45 | $14,167,330,740 | 24 / 15 |
| 2026-08-06 | $10.45 | $14,167,330,740 | 24 / 15 |
| 2026-08-07 | $10.40 | $14,143,526,121 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $10.45 | $14,159,926,120 | 24 / 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | $10.45 | $14,159,926,120 | 24 / 15 |
| 2026-08-10 | $10.40 | $14,143,526,121 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $10.40 | $14,143,526,121 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $10.40 | $14,143,526,121 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $10.40 | $14,143,526,121 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $10.40 | $14,143,526,121 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $10.40 | $14,143,526,121 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $10.40 | $14,143,526,121 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $10.40 | $14,143,526,121 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $10.40 | $14,143,526,121 | 16 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $10.39 | $14,158,374,997 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-08-21 | $10.39 | $14,158,374,997 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-08-22 | $10.39 | $14,158,374,997 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-08-23 | $10.39 | $14,158,374,997 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-08-24 | $10.39 | $14,158,374,997 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-08-25 | $10.39 | $14,158,374,997 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-08-26 | $10.39 | $14,158,374,997 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-08-27 | $10.39 | $14,158,374,997 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-08-28 | $10.39 | $14,158,374,997 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-08-29 | $10.39 | $14,158,374,997 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-08-30 | $10.39 | $14,158,374,997 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-08-31 | $10.39 | $14,158,374,997 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-09-01 | $10.39 | $14,158,374,997 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-09-02 | $10.39 | $14,158,374,997 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-09-03 | $10.39 | $14,143,226,560 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-09-04 | $10.39 | $14,143,226,560 | 16 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $10.39 | $14,143,226,560 | 16 / 14 |
| 2026-09-06 | $10.39 | $14,143,226,560 | 16 / 14 |
| 2026-09-07 | $10.39 | $14,143,226,560 | 16 / 14 |
| 2026-09-08 | $10.39 | $14,143,226,560 | 16 / 14 |
| 2026-09-09 | $10.39 | $14,143,226,560 | 16 / 14 |
| 2026-09-10 | $10.39 | $14,143,226,560 | 16 / 14 |
| 2026-09-11 | $10.39 | $14,150,507,350 | 17 / 14 |
| 2026-09-12 | $10.39 | $14,150,507,350 | 17 / 14 |
| 2026-09-13 | $10.39 | $14,150,507,350 | 17 / 14 |
| 2026-09-14 | $10.39 | $14,150,507,350 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-15 | $10.39 | $14,150,507,350 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-16 | $10.39 | $14,150,507,350 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-17 | $10.39 | $14,150,507,350 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | $10.39 | $14,150,507,350 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | $10.39 | $14,150,507,350 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-20 | $10.40 | $14,150,507,350 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-21 | $10.40 | $14,150,507,350 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-22 | $10.40 | $14,150,507,350 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-23 | $10.40 | $14,150,507,350 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-24 | $10.40 | $14,150,507,350 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-25 | $10.40 | $14,150,507,350 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-26 | $10.40 | $14,150,507,350 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-27 | $10.40 | $14,150,507,350 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-28 | $10.40 | $14,150,507,350 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-29 | $10.40 | $14,150,507,350 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-09-30 | $10.40 | $14,150,507,350 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-01 | $10.40 | $14,150,507,350 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-02 | $10.40 | $14,150,507,350 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-03 | $10.40 | $14,150,507,350 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-04 | $10.40 | $14,150,507,350 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-05 | $10.40 | $14,150,507,350 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-06 | $10.40 | $14,150,507,350 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-07 | $10.40 | $14,150,507,350 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-08 | $10.40 | $14,150,507,350 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-09 | $10.40 | $14,150,507,350 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-10 | $10.40 | $14,150,507,350 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-11 | $10.40 | $14,150,507,350 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-12 | $10.40 | $14,150,507,350 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-13 | $10.40 | $14,150,507,350 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-14 | $10.39 | $14,151,389,703 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-15 | $10.37 | $14,138,023,609 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-10-16 | $10.37 | $14,138,321,831 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-10-17 | $10.37 | $14,138,321,831 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-10-18 | $10.37 | $14,138,321,831 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-10-19 | $10.37 | $14,138,321,831 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-10-20 | $10.36 | $14,139,488,498 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-10-21 | $10.37 | $14,133,766,275 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-10-22 | $10.37 | $14,134,210,720 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-10-23 | $10.37 | $14,135,744,150 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-10-24 | $10.37 | $14,135,744,150 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-10-25 | $10.37 | $14,135,744,150 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-10-26 | $10.37 | $14,135,744,150 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-10-27 | $10.37 | $14,135,744,150 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-10-28 | $10.37 | $14,131,411,265 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-10-29 | $10.37 | $14,114,705,964 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-10-30 | $10.39 | $14,127,094,853 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-10-31 | $10.39 | $14,127,094,853 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-11-01 | $10.39 | $14,126,261,520 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-11-02 | $10.39 | $14,126,261,520 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-11-03 | $10.41 | $14,126,261,520 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-11-04 | $10.41 | $14,126,261,520 | 18 / 16 |
| 2026-11-05 | $10.41 | $14,126,261,520 | 18 / 16 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 15 recorded
3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.