Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$53.17+5.92%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.38 → 5.37 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HMN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend per share at least $0.36 in Q1 2026 | The company keeps raising dividends, now $0.36 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.35 in any quarter | Dividend per share: $0.36 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.36 Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 20260.36 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
HMN is a financially strong, acquisition-led growth story with moderate risk, rather than a turnaround. Its long-term thesis remains intact, and recent results have kept its performance in the top half of its industry.
The evidence describes HMN as cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap, meaning market expectations appear below the model’s view. Pricing is tagged as justified, and the evidence shows low fragility, so the valuation case is not based on a fragile setup.
Near term, management execution has been strong: revenue increased from the first to the second quarter of 2026, core EPS guidance was raised, and quarterly diluted EPS was consistent with that guidance. Acquisitions are supporting revenue growth, and dividend payments have been maintained; however, recent earnings surprises have been erratic and trending down, despite a low estimated miss risk.
The multi-year thesis depends on acquisitions continuing to add revenue and management sustaining its raised 2026 core EPS guidance. A guidance reversal would damage credibility, while rate cuts could weigh on HMN and the Financials sector; continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
Over the next one to three years, HMN’s strong execution and peer-relative valuation support an intact long-term thesis, but acquisition delivery, guidance credibility, and interest rates remain key swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Earnings per share guidance for 2026 is $4.35, showing stable profits. |
| Intact |
| EPS guidance falls below $4.2 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $1.01 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $4.35 FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 20261.01 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income rises to at least $50.2M in Q1 2026 | A primary condition in Horace Mann Educators Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= $50.2M operating income Q1 2026. | Intact | Operating income falls below $46M in any quarter | Operating income: $49M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $50.2M operating income Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 202649,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Management uses segment core earnings to analyze each segment's performance and as a tool in making business decisions.” Operating income was $45.700 million in 2025-Q4. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue grows to at least $1.77B in FY26 | A primary condition in Horace Mann Educators Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.77B total revenue FY26. | Broken | Total revenue falls below $1.67B in FY26 | Revenue: $443.5M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.77B total revenue FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 2026443,500,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Net premiums written and contract deposits – Management utilizes this non-GAAP measure, which is based on statutory accounting principles, in analyzing and evaluating business growth.” “Sales are also a leading indicator of future revenue trends.” Revenue was $443.500 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.04 → $5.37 · observed estimates
$1.33B → $1.33B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.04 | $1,334,630,300 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.06 | $1,858,000,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.06 | $1,858,000,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.24 | $1,858,000,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.18 | $1,334,630,300 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.18 | $1,334,630,300 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.24 | $1,858,000,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.24 | $1,858,000,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.18 | $1,334,630,300 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.24 | $1,858,000,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.18 | $1,334,630,300 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.24 | $1,858,000,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.24 | $1,858,000,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.24 | $1,858,000,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.18 | $1,334,630,300 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.24 | $1,858,000,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.24 | $1,858,000,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.24 | $1,858,000,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.39 | $1,858,000,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.18 | $1,334,630,300 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.18 | $1,334,630,300 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.18 | $1,334,630,300 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.18 | $1,334,630,300 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.18 | $1,334,630,300 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.18 | $1,334,630,300 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.18 | $1,334,630,300 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.39 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.39 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.39 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.39 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.39 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.39 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.39 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.39 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.39 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.33 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.38 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.38 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.38 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.38 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.38 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.38 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.38 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.38 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.38 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.38 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.38 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.37 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.37 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.37 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.37 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.37 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.37 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.37 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.37 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.37 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.37 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.37 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.37 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.37 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.37 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.37 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.37 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.37 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.37 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.37 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.37 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.37 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.37 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.37 | $1,328,202,650 | 2 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.