Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$50.94-1.91%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HMN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -16.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -18.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HMN — debt issuance
Dated 2025-09-29
Other Events On September 29, 2025 , Horace Mann Educators Corporation issued a notice of redemption for all of its outstanding 4.500% Senior Notes due 2025 (the “Notes”). The redemption is expected to occur on October 14, 2025 (the “Redemption Date”). The Notes are redeemable at a redemption price that is equal to the sum of 100% of the principal amount of the Notes being redeemed plus accrued and unpaid interest thereon to, but not including, the Redemption Date. This Form 8-K does not cons…
Why it matters: Updates on M&A may show growth chances. They could help revenue increase.
Supportive ifThere is news of a successful acquisition. It adds a lot of revenue.
Worry ifNo further M&A announcements or delays in the current deal.
Why it matters: Slower growth in operating income may show problems with managing costs.
Worry ifOperating income growth is below 10% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifOperating income growth is above 10% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising dividends shows good financial health. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThere is an announcement about keeping or raising the dividend payment per share.
Worry ifThere is an announcement about cutting or stopping the dividend.
Why it matters: Operating income growth shows the company can manage costs. This helps make more money.
Supportive ifOperating income was over $50M in Q2. This shows management focuses on making more money.
Worry ifOperating income was below $48M. This shows possible problems with cost management.
Why it matters: If revenue growth slows, it may signal a change in the growth trend. Management has prioritized increasing revenue growth, and a drop below this level could raise concerns.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Paying dividends shows a company is doing well. It also shows they care about their shareholders. A steady dividend helps build trust with investors.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at $0.36 or higher in Q3.
Worry ifDividend per share drops below $0.36 in Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping dividends shows financial strength. It helps build investor trust.
Supportive ifDividends are paid in Q2 without cuts.
Worry ifDividends are reduced or suspended in Q2.
Why it matters: A drop in operating income may mean cost management is not working. This raises worries about profits.
Worry ifOperating income drops below $500M in Q2.
Less concerning ifOperating income stays above $502M in Q2.
Why it matters: The company aims to increase revenue growth. A strong Q2 report would show progress.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in net premiums written shows demand for insurance products and revenue potential.
Supportive ifNet premiums written grow more than 5% compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifNet premiums written decline or grow less than 0% compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Better core earnings growth helps management boost operating income. It shows strong performance.
Supportive ifCore earnings growth exceeds 20% year over year.
Worry ifCore earnings growth remains below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: An earnings miss would indicate ongoing challenges and could hurt investor confidence. It follows the recent earnings miss.
Worry ifThe Q2 earnings report did not meet analyst expectations.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings report beats what analysts expected.
Why it matters: High disaster costs can hurt earnings. They also show risk in the insurance business.
Worry ifCatastrophe costs reported above $10 million in Q2.
Less concerning ifCatastrophe costs reported below $5 million in Q2.
Why it matters: A new acquisition could drive revenue growth and enhance market position.
Supportive ifA press release says there is a new acquisition. This will add a lot of revenue.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A dividend increase would show strong finances and care for shareholders. Management has kept dividends steady.
Supportive ifManagement says they will raise the dividend per share.
Worry ifManagement maintains the dividend at $0.36 per share without an increase.
Why it matters: The financial sector's growth trajectory impacts Horace Mann's performance. A slowdown could affect revenue.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$89 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $219 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,073 loss on $10,000 · 10.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.