Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Hallador Energy Co. (HNRG)
NASDAQUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-11-05
$9.36-2.60%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.56 → 0.23 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HNRG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain $1.2 billion forward sales commitments through 2029 | Hallador Energy has $1.2 billion in sales commitments through 2029. | Intact | forward sales commitments fall below $1 billion before 2029 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making power business with project growth potential, rather than an established, steady compounder. Its long-term thesis is on watch: contracted revenue is expanding, but recent financial performance is weak and management execution has been volatile.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure says HNRG is cheap versus peers, while another indicates a 40% premium, and the model has low confidence. The expectations gap is negative, so the snapshot does not support a clear claim that the market has already priced in strong execution; priced-in fragility is low.
Near term, earnings risk is elevated after an erratic record of surprises and a miss in the latest quarter. Over the multi-year view, forward contracted sales have grown, and Turtle Creek is progressing toward its targeted commercial operation in the second half of 2028. Financing and capital allocation remain points to watch: debt and project spending increased while liquidity declined modestly.
The downside scenario is a guidance cut on the next call, which could add pressure to already weak expectations. The favorable scenarios include lower interest rates and continued strong results and guidance from sector peers, though these are sector tailwinds rather than proof of HNRG’s own execution. For the multi-year thesis, key evidence will be continued growth in contracted revenue, progress on Turtle Creek, and disciplined financing.
Over the next one to three years, HNRG’s thesis has credible project and contracted-revenue progress but is constrained by weak performance, high risk, and uncertain execution. The evidence supports a watchful, mixed view rather than a firm conclusion. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| New legal leadership may improve management stability. |
| Intact |
| Further key management departures or risk oversight failures |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue of $859.6 million in 2026 (excluding Merom coal sales) | A primary condition in Hallador Energy Co.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $859.6 million. | Intact | annual revenue falls below $800 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.03 → $0.23 · observed estimates
$0.50B → $0.48B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.03 | $496,144,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.03 | $496,144,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.03 | $497,644,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.11 | $495,425,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.03 | $497,644,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.03 | $497,644,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.11 | $495,425,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.11 | $495,425,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.03 | $497,644,350 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.11 | $495,425,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.11 | $495,425,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.11 | $495,425,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.11 | $495,425,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.11 | $495,425,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.03 | $497,643,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.11 | $495,425,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.11 | $495,425,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.03 | $497,643,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.04 | $492,825,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.03 | $497,643,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.03 | $497,643,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.03 | $497,643,750 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.03 | $497,643,750 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.03 | $497,643,750 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.03 | $497,643,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.03 | $497,643,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.65 | $491,643,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.65 | $491,643,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.65 | $491,643,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.65 | $491,643,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.65 | $491,643,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.65 | $491,643,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.65 | $491,643,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.65 | $491,643,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.65 | $491,643,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.65 | $491,643,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.65 | $491,643,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.65 | $491,643,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.65 | $491,643,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.65 | $491,643,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.65 | $491,643,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.65 | $491,643,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.56 | $477,693,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.56 | $477,693,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.56 | $477,693,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.56 | $477,693,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.56 | $477,693,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.56 | $477,693,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.56 | $477,693,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.56 | $477,693,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.56 | $477,693,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.56 | $477,693,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.56 | $477,693,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.56 | $477,693,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.56 | $477,693,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.56 | $477,693,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.56 | $477,693,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.56 | $477,693,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.56 | $477,693,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.56 | $477,693,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.56 | $477,693,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.56 | $477,693,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.56 | $477,693,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.56 | $477,693,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.56 | $477,693,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.56 | $477,693,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.56 | $477,693,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.56 | $477,693,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.56 | $477,693,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.56 | $477,693,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.56 | $477,693,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.56 | $477,693,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.56 | $477,693,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.56 | $477,693,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.23 | $478,918,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.23 | $478,918,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.23 | $478,918,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.23 | $478,918,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.23 | $479,968,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.23 | $479,968,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.23 | $479,968,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.23 | $479,968,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.23 | $479,968,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.23 | $479,968,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.23 | $479,968,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.23 | $479,968,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.23 | $479,968,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.23 | $479,968,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.23 | $479,968,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.23 | $479,968,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.23 | $479,968,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.23 | $479,968,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.23 | $479,968,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.23 | $479,968,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.23 | $479,968,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.23 | $479,968,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.23 | $479,968,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.23 | $479,968,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.23 | $479,968,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.23 | $479,968,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.23 | $479,968,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.23 | $479,968,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.23 | $479,968,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.23 | $479,968,750 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.