Hallador Energy Co. (HNRG)
NASDAQUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$16.60+3.04%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HNRG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 7.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HNRG — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 10, 2026, Hallador Energy Company issued a press release announcing its second q uarter 2026 financial and operating results. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The information included in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, that is furnished pursuant to this
Why it matters: Higher revenue shows Hallador's success in growing its long-term income. This is key for stability.
Supportive ifManagement shares news of new contracts. Total revenue is now over $2.4 billion.
Worry ifRevenue stays the same or drops from $2.4 billion.
Why it matters: The study results will inform the costs and feasibility of the Turtle Creek project.
Watch forMISO's ERAS study shows low upgrade costs for the Turtle Creek project.
Also watch forMISO's ERAS study shows high upgrade costs that could threaten the project.
Why it matters: Approval will show Hallador's revenue and help its financial health.
Supportive ifApproval for the 12-year capacity agreement will come by late 2026.
Worry ifRejection or big delays in the approval process.
Why it matters: New contracts will help show revenue, which supports Hallador's growth plans.
Supportive ifManagement will announce new forward sales contracts worth over $200 million by the end of 2026.
Worry ifNo new forward sales contracts are announced by the end of 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$237 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $618 loss on $10,000 · 6.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,246 loss on $10,000 · 42.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target is key for showing Hallador's growth progress.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue reported at or above $859.6 million, excluding coal sales to Merom.
Worry ifIf Q2 2026 revenue is under $800 million, it shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: Results from the MISO ERAS study will affect Turtle Creek's costs and timeline. This is key for progress.
Watch forMISO gives good study results that help the project move forward.
Also watch forMISO results show high upgrade costs or delays that slow project progress.
Why it matters: Commitments through 2029 are crucial for future revenue. A lack of new commitments may signal weak demand.
Worry ifNew forward sales commitments are over $1.2 billion.
Less concerning ifNo new forward sales commitments were announced. Total commitments went down.
Why it matters: Successful integration of the new assets can boost growth. Failure to integrate may harm performance.
Supportive ifNew assets show positive results within six months.
Worry ifNew assets show no improvement or a decline in metrics.
Why it matters: A decision will confirm the project's viability and impact future revenue. It is a key step for Hallador's growth.
Supportive ifManagement will decide on the Turtle Creek project. They will sign a generator agreement.
Worry ifIf the decision is delayed or not made, there may be problems with the project.
Why it matters: Getting DOE funding can help the Merom project and support growth.
Supportive ifThere will be an announcement about the $27.2 million DOE funding.
Worry ifNot getting the DOE funding for the Merom project.