Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Honest Co., Inc. (The) (HNST)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.440.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.11 → 0.11 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HNST yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA of $20M to $23M in 2026 | The company plans adjusted EBITDA of $20 to $23 million. | Improving | adjusted EBITDA falls below $20 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
HNST is a smaller consumer staples growth business, with a thesis tied to stronger organic growth and better profitability. The thesis is on watch: management has raised its 2026 outlook, but confidence has eased from high to medium and recent performance remains below its industry group.
Valuation is expensive versus peers, with a premium that reflects some expectation of additional opportunity. The expectations gap is small, while model confidence is low, so the valuation case depends on continued execution rather than clear room for expectations to rise.
Near term, the outlook has improved: management raised 2026 revenue, organic growth, and adjusted EBITDA guidance, and second-quarter organic revenue growth was led by wipes and personal care. Gross margin also expanded, helped by tariff refunds and product mix, though progress on margin and efficiency remains marked behind, and diaper revenue declined.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued growth in higher-margin products and durable progress in margins and operating efficiency. Near term, a guidance reversal would damage credibility, while weaker jobs data could weigh on consumer staples; continued strength from large sector peers would support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, HNST has a clearer growth and profitability story, but elevated risk, expensive valuation, and mixed execution leave the thesis dependent on follow-through. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Honest Co., Inc. (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 4% and <= 6% YoY. |
| Broken |
| organic revenue growth falls below 4% in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Full year 2026 revenue near $306M to $312M | A primary condition in Honest Co., Inc. (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $306 million and <= $312 million. | Intact | annual revenue falls below $306 million in FY26 | Revenue: $83.303M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $306 million and <= $312 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 202683,303,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.09 → $0.11 · observed estimates
$0.33B → $0.34B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.09 | $326,459,087 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.12 | $326,530,510 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.12 | $326,530,510 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.12 | $326,530,510 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.09 | $326,459,087 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.09 | $326,459,087 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.12 | $326,530,510 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.12 | $326,530,510 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.09 | $326,459,087 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.12 | $326,530,510 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.12 | $326,530,510 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.12 | $326,530,510 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.12 | $326,530,510 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.12 | $326,530,510 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.12 | $333,340,658 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.12 | $333,340,658 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.14 | $335,868,010 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.12 | $333,340,658 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.13 | $335,933,510 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.12 | $333,340,658 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.12 | $333,340,658 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.12 | $333,340,658 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.12 | $333,340,658 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.12 | $333,340,658 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.12 | $333,340,658 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.12 | $333,340,658 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.11 | $335,959,457 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.