Honest Co., Inc. (The) (HNST)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$5.95+1.71%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HNST
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 46.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 47.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 19 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HNST — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-06-18
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The disclosure set forth in
Why it matters: A drop worse than 18% would raise worries about the company's growth plans.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue was below $250 million. This shows a drop over 18%.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 revenue was above $250 million. This shows better results than expected.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows strong finances. It allows for more investment in growth.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations stays positive in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations turns negative in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Gross margin above 48% shows good cost control and better product choices.
Supportive ifGross margin remains above 48% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifGross margin drops below 46% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Ending the lawsuit can help management focus. It can also build trust with investors.
Watch forThe court has approved the settlement in the derivative lawsuit.
Also watch forThere may be more delays or issues in the litigation process.
Why it matters: Controlling operating costs is key to making more money and improving cash flow.
Supportive ifOperating expenses decrease by more than 5% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating expenses increase by more than 5% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Another raise would show strong belief in continued growth and success.
Supportive ifManagement raises the full year revenue outlook to over $325 million.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers the full year revenue outlook to under $319 million.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows the company is doing well with high-margin products.
Supportive ifIn Q3, organic revenue growth is over 5%. This shows growth strategies are working.
Worry ifIn Q3, organic revenue growth is below 4%. This shows problems in high-margin products.
Why it matters: Better margins show good cost management and product choices. This can help make more money.
Supportive ifAdjusted gross margin is over 45% in Q3. This shows good cost control.
Worry ifAdjusted gross margin drops below 40%. This shows possible cost management problems.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow shows good financial health. It helps the company invest in growth.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations is over $30 million in Q3. This supports ongoing investments.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is below $20 million in Q3. This raises worries about cash.
Why it matters: A successful move can improve efficiency and boost employee morale.
Supportive ifThe new headquarters will be done by Q4 2026. This shows the move is on track.
Worry ifDelays in the headquarters move past Q4 2026 suggest there are operational problems.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$180 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $448 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,866 loss on $10,000 · 48.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.