Honest Co., Inc. (The) (HNST)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.440.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HNST
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 5.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
HNST — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-06-18
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The disclosure set forth in
Why it matters: Honest raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA range to $23 million–$25 million. Q3 results can show if earnings are tracking that plan.
Supportive ifHonest reports Q3 adjusted EBITDA of at least $5.2 million, keeping the first nine months on pace for $23 million.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is below $5.2 million, putting the first nine months below $18.2 million.
Why it matters: Diaper sales fell even as wipes and personal care grew. A deeper drop could offset growth in those faster-growing lines.
Worry ifQ3 results show diaper revenue falling faster than in Q2, when the company reported a decline.
Less concerning ifQ3 results show diaper revenue flat or growing year over year.
Why it matters: Q2 gross margin got a lift from tariff refunds. Underlying adjusted gross margin removes those refunds and is a clearer test of margin gains.
Worry ifQ3 underlying adjusted gross margin is below 43.8%.
Less concerning ifQ3 underlying adjusted gross margin is 43.8% or higher.
Why it matters: Q2 organic revenue grew 6.7%, and Honest raised its 2026 growth outlook to 5%–7%. Another strong quarter would support that growth path.
Supportive ifQ3 organic revenue growth is above 5%, with wipes and personal care leading growth.
Worry ifQ3 organic revenue growth is below 5%, or wipes and personal care sales decline.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$170 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $477 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,694 loss on $10,000 · 36.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Honest's 2026 outlook uses current tariff levels and mitigation steps. A change in either could affect margins and the full-year plan.
Watch forOn November 5, Honest reports tariff costs at or below its current plan and keeps its 2026 outlook.
Also watch forOn November 5, Honest reports higher tariff costs and cuts its 2026 outlook.