Honeywell (HON)
NASDAQIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$209.61+0.95%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HON
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -17.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -38.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
HON — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-19
President and CEO — Billal Hammoud: The filing announces an internal succession where an existing executive (Hammoud) is promoted to a new segment CEO role, with a named successor (Picon) taking over his previous role, while another executive (West) departs.
Why it matters: Changes in backlog growth can signal shifts in demand and operational capacity. It helps gauge future revenue potential.
Watch forBacklog growth rate reported above 16%.
Also watch forBacklog growth rate reported below 10%.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key priority. A decline would signal ongoing challenges in the business.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth is reported below the full-year target of $38.8 billion.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 revenue meets or exceeds the full-year target of $38.8 billion.
Why it matters: Growth in adjusted EPS shows strong performance and good management after the spin-off.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS growth of 6% or more in Q3 compared to the previous year.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS growth falls below 6% in Q3.
Why it matters: Confirming 4% organic growth would show Honeywell is on track post spin-off. This reflects management's confidence in the new structure.
Supportive ifManagement says Q3 organic growth will be 4% or more in the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement cuts Q3 organic growth guidance to less than 3%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$135 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $263 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,034 loss on $10,000 · 20.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop below this level shows profit problems after the spin-off. It may mean issues with costs or demand.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS reported at $8.05 or higher.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EPS was below $8.05.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key priority for Honeywell. Weak growth may signal ongoing challenges.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows Honeywell's ability to generate cash after the spin-off. It is crucial for funding future growth.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported is about $2.0 billion as expected.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported is much lower than $2.0 billion.
Why it matters: If margins shrink, it shows operational problems in the new setup after the spin-off.
Worry ifSegment margin reported below 20.1% in Q3.
Less concerning ifSegment margin reported at or above 20.1%.
Why it matters: This would signal a slowdown in revenue growth after a strong Q2. It could indicate challenges in maintaining momentum post spin-off.
Worry ifQ3 organic sales growth was below 3%.
Less concerning ifQ3 organic sales growth reported at 3% or higher.
Why it matters: This shows that earnings growth is not as good as management hoped. This may worry investors about profits.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS growth reported below 6%.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EPS growth reported at 6% or higher.
Why it matters: A significant drop in backlog could indicate weakening demand. This would be a crucial signal for future revenue.
Worry ifBacklog orders reported down more than 10% from the previous quarter.
Less concerning ifBacklog orders are stable or going up.
Why it matters: Falling below this target could signal issues in cash generation. It may impact future investments and growth plans.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $2 billion for 2026.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow reported at $2 billion or higher for 2026.