Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Honeywell Aerospace (HONA)
USIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
$149.59-4.35%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
USIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
8.96 → 8.65 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HONA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBIT of at least $4.46 billion in 2025 | Adjusted EBIT increased to $4.46 billion. | Broken | Adjusted EBIT falls below $4.46 billion in 2025 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an industrial company with a moderate-risk, execution-led thesis, rather than a clear turnaround or speculative growth case. Management priorities are marked on track, but the thesis state is insufficient because there is not enough recent financial history to assess it.
The evidence labels pricing as justified, with low fragility, meaning it does not flag unusually concentrated expectations risk. The expectations-gap measure is negative, but the snapshot does not explain its scale or provide peer comparisons, so it does not support a clear cheap-or-expensive judgment.
Near term, output and sales may remain constrained by mechanical component availability and suppliers, while organic sales growth has slowed from 5% to 2% year over year. Adjusted EBIT improved in the latest quarter and second-half free cash flow guidance was raised, but earnings surprises have been trending down and a recent deep miss remains a risk.
The multi-year view depends on whether sourcing and capacity actions ease supply constraints and support stronger output. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued strong results and higher guidance from industrial bellwethers would support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, HONA shows measurable execution progress, but slower organic growth, supply constraints, and a headwind from the sector leave the thesis mixed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Honeywell Aerospace's published investment case. The stated target is >=12% YoY. |
| Broken |
| Organic sales growth falls below 12% YoY in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 1 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““As we establish Honeywell Aerospace as a standalone company, we will harness our increased financial flexibility and leverage our Honeywell Aerospace Operating System to drive greater innovation, more resilient output, and above market growth over time.”” “We are committed to delivering on the 2030 targets laid out at Investor Day in June, and we are moving with the speed and urgency required for improved performance in 2027 and beyond.”” Revenue was $4.644 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Segment profit of at least $4.1 billion in 2025 | Segment profit rose to $4.1 billion in 2025. | Broken | Segment profit falls below $4.1 billion in 2025 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete spin-off and establish independent governance | The spin-off is complete and governance is independent. | Intact | Spin-off is reversed or governance fails to establish | Spin-off completed; governance established (dividend initiated, board active) HONA declared its first independent dividend and authorized a $3.5B buyback, confirming successful separation and independent governance. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$9.58 → $8.65 · observed estimates
$20.23B → $19.83B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | $9.58 | $20,232,565,110 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-08-09 | $9.25 | $19,937,699,270 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-10 | $9.25 | $19,937,699,270 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-12 | $9.20 | $19,907,042,130 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-13 | $9.20 | $19,907,042,130 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $9.59 | $20,340,000,000 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $9.59 | $20,340,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $9.59 | $20,340,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $9.59 | $20,340,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $9.59 | $20,340,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $9.59 | $20,340,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $9.29 | $19,910,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $9.29 | $19,910,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $9.29 | $19,910,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $9.29 | $19,910,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $9.29 | $19,910,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $9.29 | $19,910,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $9.29 | $19,910,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $9.29 | $19,910,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $9.29 | $19,910,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $9.29 | $19,910,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $9.29 | $19,910,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $9.29 | $19,910,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $9.29 | $19,910,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $9.29 | $19,910,000,000 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $8.96 | $19,910,000,000 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $8.80 | $19,860,000,000 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $8.80 | $19,860,000,000 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $8.80 | $19,860,000,000 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $8.80 | $19,860,000,000 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $8.75 | $19,860,000,000 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $8.75 | $19,860,000,000 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $8.75 | $19,860,000,000 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $8.75 | $19,860,000,000 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $8.75 | $19,880,000,000 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $8.75 | $19,880,000,000 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $8.75 | $19,880,000,000 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $8.75 | $19,880,000,000 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $8.75 | $19,880,000,000 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $8.75 | $19,880,000,000 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $8.75 | $19,880,000,000 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $8.75 | $19,880,000,000 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $8.75 | $19,880,000,000 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $8.75 | $19,880,000,000 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $8.61 | $19,880,000,000 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $8.61 | $19,880,000,000 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $8.61 | $19,880,000,000 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.65 | $19,830,000,000 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-11-05 | $8.65 | $19,830,000,000 | 9 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.