Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (HOV)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$104.83-5.17%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HOV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -69.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 75.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers
HOV — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-20
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On August 20, 2026, Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its preliminary financial results for the fiscal third quarter ended July 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K and the Exhibit attached hereto is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amende…
Why it matters: Liquidity was $379.8M in Q3, above the stated target range. A sharp drop could reduce the cash cushion.
Worry ifQ4 total liquidity falls to $245M or less.
Less concerning ifQ4 total liquidity stays above $245M.
Why it matters: Q3 revenue was $705.7M. The Q4 result tests management’s stated growth goal.
Supportive ifQ4 2026 revenue is at least $800M.
Worry ifQ4 2026 revenue is below $800M.
Why it matters: The sector read says revenue is shrinking, but recent signals hint the decline may be changing. Positive growth would ease that concern.
Supportive ifThe next sector update reports positive revenue growth after the current shrinking trend.
Worry ifThe next sector update still reports shrinking revenue.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA fell from $41.1M in Q2 to $31.9M in Q3. A result below the Q4 guide would extend the decline.
Worry ifQ4 adjusted EBITDA is below $50M, the lower end of the guide.
Less concerning ifQ4 adjusted EBITDA is $50M or more.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$254 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $516 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,850 loss on $10,000 · 38.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Margins rose for two straight quarters but remain below the Q4 guide. A result in range would extend that recovery.
Supportive ifQ4 adjusted homebuilding gross margin is at least 15.0%.
Worry ifQ4 adjusted gross margin for homebuilding is below 15.0%.