Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (HOV)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$122.79+1.30%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HOV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -61.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 65.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HOV — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-20
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On August 20, 2026, Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its preliminary financial results for the fiscal third quarter ended July 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K and the Exhibit attached hereto is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amende…
Why it matters: High cancellation rates indicate weak demand and can hurt future revenue. This is a key risk signal.
Worry ifThe contract cancellation rate is above 19%.
Less concerning ifThe contract cancellation rate is below 19%.
Why it matters: An increase in cancellation rates could signal weakening demand. This impacts future revenue.
Worry ifContract cancellation rate is over 17%.
Less concerning ifGross domestic contract cancellation rate is 15% or lower.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target would show growth. It would mean recovery from recent drops.
Supportive ifTotal revenues reported in Q4 2026 fall within the range of $800M to $900M.
Worry ifTotal revenues reported in Q4 2026 fall below $800M.
Why it matters: Reaching this margin would show better cost control. It would mean more efficient operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted homebuilding gross margin in Q4 2026 is between 15% and 16.5%.
Worry ifAdjusted homebuilding gross margin in Q4 2026 is below 15%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$243 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $516 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,956 loss on $10,000 · 39.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This target shows the company can make more money. This is true even after recent drops.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA reported in Q4 2026 falls within the range of $50M to $65M.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA reported in Q4 2026 is below $50M.
Why it matters: Keeping strong cash flow is key. It helps deal with market problems and pay for operations.
Supportive ifTotal cash flow reported in Q4 2026 is above $170M.
Worry ifTotal liquidity reported in Q4 2026 falls below $170M.